Unveiling the Perils: Russia-Ukraine War vs. Global Financial Meltdown - An Exclusive Interview with Dave Collum - #194
Jonathan Kogan:
And we're live on The Jonathan Kogan Show, the number one apolitical, pro-human, pro-earth, anti-nuclear war podcast on the internet. We got Dave Collum again, round two. Um, let's just jump right into it. This is something I've been thinking about. It's the number one question I have. And think about it in terms of like probability, just the whole encompassing the whole thing. What's more of a threat to humanity? The Ukraine, Russian war
Dave Collum:
Thanks for watching!
Jonathan Kogan:
or the Ukraine war or global financial collapse or meltdown of the financial system, which is a more threat to humanity and possibly killing more people.
Dave Collum:
Meltdown. Because I think right now the Ukraine war is controlled. I think people are still making decisions what to do and not do. I think the meltdown will cause it to go chaotic. It'll become an emergency system. And it can't just be a 40% equity correction meltdown, but we could have something much, much worse. If we have that, then all of a sudden decision making goes out the tube. So I still think... There's guys deciding not to nuke each other and stuff like that. I guess I have some faith in that. I think the Ukraine story is an awful story. And I've, I back when the cool kids were not doing it, I was criticizing NATO and supporting Putin and, and, and, and saying this, this story is being told completely ass backwards. So.
Jonathan Kogan:
So what's, well, I don't know which way I want to go here.
Dave Collum:
Yeah, I know the fork in the road just showed up
Jonathan Kogan:
It's just
Dave Collum:
t
Jonathan Kogan:
so
Dave Collum:
equals
Jonathan Kogan:
crazy how many things there
Dave Collum:
Jonathan Kogan:
are.
Dave Collum:
seconds.
Jonathan Kogan:
But
Dave Collum:
Yeah.
Jonathan Kogan:
I guess give me your right now as of today, and it's May 25th, 2023, your global macro outlook on the financial markets. Where we're at now and where you thought we would be now, and have you been right or wrong? And what do you see lies ahead?
Dave Collum:
or
Jonathan Kogan:
Do you see
Dave Collum:
early,
Jonathan Kogan:
a recession?
Dave Collum:
or early.
Jonathan Kogan:
Early?
Dave Collum:
Yeah. Well, you know, there's a guy who's say if you're early, you're wrong. One very prominent podcaster. Oh, shit, I'm drawing a blank in his name. This is old age. In any event, very proud. One of the early guys said early is wrong. And I sent him a write up. I wrote in 2002 on the subprime market and that it would collapse the banking system. And I said, was I early and wrong? And he read it. And he said, no, you're fabulously correct. So that's sort of my version of the sovereign individual, I guess. And then everything held up except I thought JPMorgan would be ground zero. I thought JPMorgan would be the big mushroom cloud. And that part I got wrong. But I got General Motors and GM and GE and all the banks. And I got all that right. I got the subprime crisis. I got the using derivatives market to pull risk forward again. I laid out that whole thing. It just took five years. And so I'm amazed. I'm always amazed where I go, that big huge block of ice in the middle of the street should melt. Why isn't it melting? And I happen to be a kinetesis, which is about rate. And sometimes things are slow.
Jonathan Kogan:
they happen.
Dave Collum:
That will become water. We know that will become water, but it's a five by five foot block of ice and it's not gonna be water today.
Jonathan Kogan:
So what do you look at though when we talk about potential recession, depression, financial collapse, do you look at the bond market first? Is that where you think the disruption's going to occur?
Dave Collum:
Well, those are kind of symptoms, not causes. The bond market is said to be the smarter of the markets, right? Those are the smart guys. But that's where the central banks all aim their weapons to try to keep it in check. There's just this huge affiliation of all these things that have lined up to make it very bad. We've been in a 40-year bond bull. I think it's probably over. They tend to be multi-decade bull markets. It was the most spectacular of them all in US history. And so here, my pitch, this is my elevator pitch to get started at least, is that recency bias is killing everybody. So
Jonathan Kogan:
100%.
Dave Collum:
they think that there's not a... personal live almost to have the big picture from personal experience at this point, but let's the boomers the older boomers might in 1981 the markets were valued at astonishingly low Valuations you couldn't give equities away. They had price earnings ratios back. I think back before they lied about earnings I think they were pretty good about reporting them of six, and that was because inflation was roaring, and interest rates got driven through the roof by Volcker. And so the bond market was a great place to invest because it paid, now you didn't know it, but at the time you didn't realize, but it was paying upwards of 20% dividends. And so why buy an equity which had slaughtered you for the previous 15 years? So you couldn't give those away. Russia was collapsing and starting to sell resources to raise cash. China was coming out of a protracted dark ages and started selling labor to raise cash. The demographics of the world were very good and in the US in particular, the boomers were hitting the workplace. They brought their wives with them. So I wish someone had said back then demographics is everything. I did well, but I keep thinking I did not understand what was happening. So everything lined up on top of that, interest rates were dropping from 16 to nothing. Warren Buffett in his 1999 article said, that is the whole story. If you can tell me the long-term direction of interest rates, I can tell you the long-term direction of the equity markets. And so that was a bull market set up. And I think the one thing the central bank did is they managed the rates downwards pretty methodically. Now, did they manage it? Was it luck? I don't know. But it looks like someone took a ruler and said, look, over the next 40 years, we can drop these rates steadily from 16 to zero. And then it'll be game over. So everyone thinks low rates is bullish for equities. That's completely wrong. Dropping rates is good for equities. Once you're at the bottom, there's nothing left. There's no lemon, there's no juice to be squeezed from that citrus fruit. Low rates, if you talk to someone like Lacey Hunt, are a symptom of a stagnating economy. If you're willing to accept 2%, then it means you don't think the free market's gonna give you better.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, you
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
could do
Dave Collum:
so
Jonathan Kogan:
negative
Dave Collum:
it...
Jonathan Kogan:
rates.
Dave Collum:
And you got negative rates, you could do negative rates, and that's, you could have sex with sheep every day, you could do all sorts of things.
Jonathan Kogan:
Price
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
of
Dave Collum:
so
Jonathan Kogan:
Time is
Dave Collum:
everything
Jonathan Kogan:
a good
Dave Collum:
was,
Jonathan Kogan:
book on that.
Dave Collum:
everything was lying, exactly. Edward Chancellor, brilliant book, everyone should read Edward Chancellor. Everyone
Jonathan Kogan:
That was.
Dave Collum:
should read everything Edward Chancellor's ever written because
Jonathan Kogan:
That was
Dave Collum:
as soon
Jonathan Kogan:
a Drunken
Dave Collum:
as it came
Jonathan Kogan:
Miller recommendation.
Dave Collum:
out, yeah, as soon as I saw the pre-order show up, I said, oh, that one I am buying. And so everything lined up and the message of the price of time is the theme, recurring theme is every time rates get below 2%, you get screwed, royally screwed. So we got to zero. So I would call that below 2%. Easy money never wins in the end. And so and then you got Peter Zahan's view of the world, which Not a fan of Zyhan.
Jonathan Kogan:
He's
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
turned
Dave Collum:
think
Jonathan Kogan:
into
Dave Collum:
some
Jonathan Kogan:
a
Dave Collum:
of
Jonathan Kogan:
shill
Dave Collum:
the Zy...
Jonathan Kogan:
for the deep state. He works for
Dave Collum:
Oh
Jonathan Kogan:
him
Dave Collum:
my
Jonathan Kogan:
now, it's
Dave Collum:
god,
Jonathan Kogan:
obvious.
Dave Collum:
as he turned into a shell for the Deep State. I
Jonathan Kogan:
It's
Dave Collum:
think he
Jonathan Kogan:
obvious.
Dave Collum:
always did. I think he always
Jonathan Kogan:
You
Dave Collum:
did.
Jonathan Kogan:
know, huge neocon.
Dave Collum:
But
Jonathan Kogan:
So obvious.
Dave Collum:
it shows. It shows so bigly.
Jonathan Kogan:
He
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
said that
Dave Collum:
but
Jonathan Kogan:
there was
Dave Collum:
but
Jonathan Kogan:
no provocation for this war. Like two days ago, he's like people asking some stupid questions. They don't know anything about this. This is a hundred percent just a random attack by Russia. Something like
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
that. Go,
Dave Collum:
watched
Jonathan Kogan:
go watch
Dave Collum:
Sebastian
Jonathan Kogan:
his video. It's unbelievable.
Dave Collum:
Gorka say that the other day. I just couldn't watch it anyway. I just, I
Jonathan Kogan:
Why
Dave Collum:
like
Jonathan Kogan:
can't?
Dave Collum:
to think I could listen to the other side, but these are just stupid statements.
Jonathan Kogan:
I don't understand why people can't just be dispassionate, objective, apolitical, and just assess every event on its own and just search for the truth. Why does it seem like everybody in this world, like it amazes me what percent of the population on either side has some sort of motive to be dishonest, to push something. It's
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
wild.
Dave Collum:
these guys can't use ignorance as an excuse. So the average bloke watching CNN can, you can say, well, they just don't know better. And they were fit. Now, our propaganda machine, yes, we have one, in case someone hasn't noticed, is bigger than the GDP of Russia. So it's insane to think that what we're getting is not propaganda
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, did you see
Dave Collum:
from...
Jonathan Kogan:
what came out yesterday? American first legal and Elon's been commenting on it. So it gets more, uh, you know, more people see it on Twitter that, uh, a lawsuit has, or a freedom of info, a FOIA request has released documents showing ties to, and I could pull it up here of how the government is tied to these NGOs, all to silence and censor and survey the people of the United States, like in writing, they have documents of it. I'll see if I could pull it up real quick. It's unbelievable.
Dave Collum:
Please do, I'm not sure whether I saw, again, it's like drinking from a fire hydrant on a daily basis now, you're really getting just a snoot full. And as we were talking about before this started, it's disorienting. If you read books on totalitarianism, which I know you do, one of the most common properties of a rising totalitarianism is confusion and disorientation, demoralization. You saw Putin's speech yesterday. You see Christine,
Jonathan Kogan:
Yes.
Dave Collum:
god damn, what's her name? Christine
Jonathan Kogan:
Lagarde?
Dave Collum:
something. And now the MAP
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh,
Dave Collum:
in
Jonathan Kogan:
Anderson.
Dave Collum:
Anderson. I was on a zoom cast with her. She had a zoom call with her. She was
Jonathan Kogan:
She's
Dave Collum:
very
Jonathan Kogan:
great.
Dave Collum:
good. So she stood up, so I think it was this morning even I watched it, where she stood up and said, called upon the world to stop listening to their leaders, to stop believing their bullshit. I mean she was, she sounded like a, you know, Abbie Hoffman from the 60s, you know, don't trust anyone over 30, you know, that sort of thing. And then I followed that with Putin's truly brilliant seven-minute speech about what is going on in the United States. And he said, we have been down this path in the Soviet Union. It does
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, what did
Dave Collum:
not
Jonathan Kogan:
he compare
Dave Collum:
work.
Jonathan Kogan:
to? He compared
Dave Collum:
Yeah,
Jonathan Kogan:
to the Bolshevik revolution in 1917.
Dave Collum:
that's right. That it was the most brilliant seven minutes that you'll ever hear out in way better than anything you'll hear inside the United States. Maybe someone like Tucker could pull it off, but
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah,
Dave Collum:
very few people.
Jonathan Kogan:
I have this feeling in my gut that Tucker's gonna that he got that he still has some of the evidence of January 6th that he wasn't allowed to show and ultimately probably got him fired that he's going to show on his new show on Twitter and just
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
gonna and
Dave Collum:
well...
Jonathan Kogan:
it's gonna blow everything up. I'm a little worried about it but it's also could be a good thing. That's just a gut feeling. I have no you know information that will happen.
Dave Collum:
Well, there's several layers. One is I think there's that possibility. The other possibility is that we don't see any of it. What that tells you about Tucker is he was too stupid to save the copy for himself or he's
Jonathan Kogan:
Or
Dave Collum:
not
Jonathan Kogan:
legal.
Dave Collum:
releasing it
Jonathan Kogan:
Could have been
Dave Collum:
or
Jonathan Kogan:
illegal.
Dave Collum:
he's, I I'd find a way to release it. I, I, it's way, way, way too important.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, if that happens and then you see that, and I didn't even plan to get in January 6th, but then you see what's his name was found guilty again, or 18 years sentenced for seditious conspiracy. If all this happens and
Dave Collum:
Was
Jonathan Kogan:
the courts.
Dave Collum:
that one of that one of one of the fraud boys?
Jonathan Kogan:
or Oath Keepers, I believe it was the Oath Keepers.
Dave Collum:
Oathkeeper, yeah.
Jonathan Kogan:
Spencer, I just saw it, got 18 years. And now if Tucker were to come out and show videos and you see this coordination of feds, and it's just obvious of them doing the violence, if that were to happen, I don't even know if that did happen, but let's say it did, and you have clear video of that, and then you see that the courts were corrupted, like that this person shouldn't have been censored or whatever, what's gonna happen? What
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
are the
Dave Collum:
they
Jonathan Kogan:
people
Dave Collum:
already
Jonathan Kogan:
gonna?
Dave Collum:
proved that with they already proved that with Chanseley. So we already know that to be true.
Jonathan Kogan:
Right, but maybe, but
Dave Collum:
They released
Jonathan Kogan:
if you see hundreds
Dave Collum:
him.
Jonathan Kogan:
of people,
Dave Collum:
Yes.
Jonathan Kogan:
I mean,
Dave Collum:
Yes.
Jonathan Kogan:
that's just insane. Not only
Dave Collum:
But
Jonathan Kogan:
that, I
Dave Collum:
so.
Jonathan Kogan:
mean.
Dave Collum:
It's staggering. It's staggering. So to me, I described January 6 as, first of all, I think a lot of the political things that you see that's just mind boggling are to make sure that populism doesn't get old. And so whether it's Bernie Sanders populism, which are Ron Paul populism, or then Donald Trump populism. So if you look at the 2022 elections, it was about making sure that the message gets received that MAGA is not acceptable.
Jonathan Kogan:
And they would have done the
Dave Collum:
Period.
Jonathan Kogan:
same thing to Bernie Sanders supporters. If Bernie Sanders was president, it's the exact same thing.
Dave Collum:
That's exactly
Jonathan Kogan:
They
Dave Collum:
right.
Jonathan Kogan:
hate the people pop. Think about what populism is. It's ultimately the voice of the people. Yes, they're going to do anything they can to win, but it's the people. That's what populism is. And they don't think about that. They don't want that. That's a threat.
Dave Collum:
They don't want the people at all.
Jonathan Kogan:
That's a threat.
Dave Collum:
And Whitney the other day said, they're not bothered by Trump, they're bothered by his supporters. And I think she's spot on. And that's Trump's advertising. He says, they're not coming for me, they're coming for you, I'm in their way. And I think that's true.
Jonathan Kogan:
So this podcast and myself, we don't trust any politician. We're apolitical. We just care about the truth. Didn't know that there was such a gap in the marketplace for telling the truth. That's how this podcast got started. And so just looking at Trump and what they're doing to him and all this stuff, it just makes you, they're making people kind of like Dave Smith just said this the other day. They're making you kind of root for them. You see every agency and every person against them. It's like making people say, oh, wow, the underdog now. It's crazy. I've never seen- it's unbelievable!
Dave Collum:
It is. And the other thing is, I believe that Trump, the total narcissist who had been planning about planning a presidential run for many years, so you can't just say just pulled it out of his ass like a new gag. He gave serious interviews back in the 90s talking
Jonathan Kogan:
in the eighties.
Dave Collum:
about running. Right. And so he's had it up his sleeve, just like Ross Perot did at one point, right. But I think what was statistically heavily weighted on narcissism, it's still gonna be there, but I think he realizes that his narcissism can be fulfilled if he reaches for greatness. So
Jonathan Kogan:
What do you
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
mean?
Dave Collum:
think he's, well, see, I think being in the limelight drove him early. And I think now he realizes that the true path of narcissistic splendor is to actually achieve. this stated goal of his to clean out the swamp and to deal with some of this crap. I think he realizes that that is his calling. And it doesn't mean it's not a narcissistic calling, but it's gelled into a more substantial calling. And I understand why people hate Trump. We all understand why people hate Trump, because he's such a bizarre character. It's a lot
Jonathan Kogan:
I
Dave Collum:
easier
Jonathan Kogan:
see both
Dave Collum:
to
Jonathan Kogan:
sides.
Dave Collum:
watch Obama. No, no. But— But what he seems to be trying to achieve, I have to support that.
Jonathan Kogan:
It is wild. I mean, you got to admit, like he was funny on CNN. Actually, I wanted to bring up the whole thing with the stands,
Dave Collum:
Oh yeah.
Jonathan Kogan:
but it was funny. But let's just go back to the American First Legal. I have it up on the screen. I'll just read through some of it. This is crazy. American First Legal released documents obtained from a FOIA lawsuit against the Department of State, exposing how the Global Engagement Center, which Elon Musk has called out on Twitter before for being a deep state censorship operation. carries out state propaganda through private media organizations. The GEC routinely coordinates with a global cartel of independent fact checkers led by the Poynter Institute for Media Studies, which operates PolitiFact, and members of its international fact checking network, IFCN. IFCN receives its initial funding from the Department of State-funded National Endowment for Democracy, which is a CIA front. The Omadar Network. That's a... He's put a lot of money behind Democrats. He's the, I believe he's the owner of, where Glenn Greenwald used to be. What he started, what's it called? Interscope. That's Interscope Records.
Dave Collum:
Yeah, I know. Intercept.
Jonathan Kogan:
Intercept.
Dave Collum:
Intercept.
Jonathan Kogan:
Google, he's tied to some really shady stuff. Google, which got their seed funding from CISA, the CIA VC arm, by the way. Same with Facebook. Facebook, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Dave Collum:
CIA
Jonathan Kogan:
We know too much
Dave Collum:
from
Jonathan Kogan:
about
Dave Collum:
day
Jonathan Kogan:
them.
Dave Collum:
one, CIA
Jonathan Kogan:
Yep.
Dave Collum:
from
Jonathan Kogan:
And.
Dave Collum:
day one.
Jonathan Kogan:
and George Soros Open Society Foundations, which he has ties to the Nazis. Um, and for people who question that, he literally is on 60 minutes in 1999 or 1998. And they asked him if he had a problem rounding up the belongings of the Jews when they were sent to the camps. And he said, not at all, not at all, not at all. Okay.
Dave Collum:
So I'm not seeing you visually. I don't know if we run into a technical challenge or not. Yeah,
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh shoot, really? Oh, but can you see the
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
screen?
Dave Collum:
can't tell. I can see the screen. I just can't see you. I see a J in place of you.
Jonathan Kogan:
It's all right. You know.
Dave Collum:
Take down the link. Take that down since you've basically got it. See if that brings your head back.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, just crazy stuff.
Dave Collum:
I'm
Jonathan Kogan:
It
Dave Collum:
still
Jonathan Kogan:
just
Dave Collum:
seeing
Jonathan Kogan:
seems like
Dave Collum:
a J.
Jonathan Kogan:
so many things.
Dave Collum:
I'm still not seeing your face. I don't need to see it. I just know that it might not show up when the time comes.
Jonathan Kogan:
What should we do here?
Dave Collum:
Well, we can do the plan we talked about, and that is just do a reboot, or we can help it. It's just somehow a communication with my computer.
Jonathan Kogan:
Here, go ahead and just stay on. I'm going to try and restart this
Dave Collum:
Why
Jonathan Kogan:
real
Dave Collum:
don't
Jonathan Kogan:
quick.
Dave Collum:
you go and come back? Yeah.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah. Hold
Dave Collum:
There you are.
Jonathan Kogan:
on. Oh, I'm back.
Dave Collum:
You just shut up. You came back.
Jonathan Kogan:
Do I look better?
Dave Collum:
No,
Jonathan Kogan:
Okay. Great. Thanks.
Dave Collum:
but ugly anarchist.
Jonathan Kogan:
It just seems like so many things are happening at once. It's just crazy. So that's coming up. And then I don't know if you saw, it's so crazy. You just talked about Putin's speech. We talk about these documents for feeling how much they're censoring us. Although we already know that there's been a lot of evidence of that. We've covered this on this podcast at great length. But also what happened is did you see at the International... COVID summit at the EU, did you see what David Martin said? Dr. David Martin, well, he's a PhD.
Dave Collum:
I did, but my brother asked me if I thought it was some AI generated image. I said, no, because it was part of about an eight hour meeting. So I don't think so.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, no, he and and he's been one of the most outspoken. He's definitely the most knowledgeable on this. Uh, he's in PlanDemic 2. Uh, by the way, PlanDemic 3 is coming out soon. The Great Awakening.
Dave Collum:
So I'm in a Dr. Zoom group and he would come and go from it. So they were all there.
Jonathan Kogan:
Isn't
Dave Collum:
It
Jonathan Kogan:
he fantastic?
Dave Collum:
was all the cool kids. But what struck me was the clarity of his presentations, how
Jonathan Kogan:
That's what he's great at.
Dave Collum:
he would just sit there and it was just laser guided prose, like, you know, and he was fantastic. The other guy, very impressive, Brian Cole was always very, very impressive. He's been off radar a lot lately.
Jonathan Kogan:
He has Lyme
Dave Collum:
I haven't.
Jonathan Kogan:
disease.
Dave Collum:
Oh,
Jonathan Kogan:
He
Dave Collum:
interesting.
Jonathan Kogan:
has lime. He's had it for a
Dave Collum:
He
Jonathan Kogan:
long time.
Dave Collum:
also, we had a vaccine injury, which maybe was an exacerbation of the Lyme disease. Because
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh, I didn't know
Dave Collum:
he,
Jonathan Kogan:
that.
Dave Collum:
and what we chatted for about an hour and 45 minutes one day, just post post podcast zoom call. There's just a couple of sitting around chatting and he, uh, he talked about how he can only go a couple hours a day. Um, and, and he kind of runs out of gas. So maybe the Lyme disease flared up. I think the vaccine, possibly the vaccine and COVID, right? You never know where they're working together. I think it has this uncanny ability to find your weakness and go for it. I think if you've got some residual cancer, boom, you get it. You got some residual neurological problem, boom, it goes for it. It seems to just find out where the hell you, you're starting to fail and it just accelerates it. I just don't know. I don't know, it makes no sense biologically to me, but it feels
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, you
Dave Collum:
that
Jonathan Kogan:
know
Dave Collum:
way.
Jonathan Kogan:
what they both have in common? They were both made by the same people.
Dave Collum:
bothers that.
Jonathan Kogan:
I'm out.
Dave Collum:
There's that, the Lime Connecticut bioweapons lab. Yeah, I know.
Jonathan Kogan:
They were both made by the same people. Do you think that most people now, as of today, have woken up to the fact that they've been bamboozled and fooled and that it was a huge Psy-op and they're accepting it and moving on? Or do you still
Dave Collum:
Do you think
Jonathan Kogan:
believe?
Dave Collum:
it was a sigh up or a fuck up? Which one do you think it is? The lying one.
Jonathan Kogan:
I believe it ultimately turned into a Psyop, regardless of the intent. They, it was taken advantage of. I personally,
Dave Collum:
What becomes a
Jonathan Kogan:
I'm,
Dave Collum:
siap
Jonathan Kogan:
I'm cynical.
Dave Collum:
when they
Jonathan Kogan:
I
Dave Collum:
cover up? When they cover
Jonathan Kogan:
know
Dave Collum:
up,
Jonathan Kogan:
everything
Dave Collum:
it
Jonathan Kogan:
that's
Dave Collum:
becomes
Jonathan Kogan:
going on
Dave Collum:
what?
Jonathan Kogan:
in the world and how, like how crazy everything is and I stay, all I do is research what's going on in the world and based on everything that's going on today in the past three years, in my mind, it's like, almost there's no question it's intentional.
Dave Collum:
Yeah, I'm not there yet. I think some of them are. I'm just not sure about lying,
Jonathan Kogan:
I think
Dave Collum:
for
Jonathan Kogan:
they
Dave Collum:
example.
Jonathan Kogan:
had to get Trump out. That's one thing. So this was
Dave Collum:
Oh yeah,
Jonathan Kogan:
a big
Dave Collum:
the
Jonathan Kogan:
way to do it.
Dave Collum:
COVID played beautifully into that.
Jonathan Kogan:
I only answer is random. They also, you talk about the aging demographics and how Drunken Miller talks about we're running into this phase from 2025 to 2035, when 80% of our spending will be for social security and things like that, and we can't support it, so maybe perhaps we've got to get rid of some people. And that plays right into the Malthusian cult, which already thinks that the world's too populated, even though it's a complete
Dave Collum:
Yeah.
Jonathan Kogan:
falsehood. And literally the most dangerous thing to our society is population collapse. And people for some reason don't understand that and that everything's
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
aging.
Dave Collum:
Elon does. He got
Jonathan Kogan:
Elon
Dave Collum:
asked
Jonathan Kogan:
does.
Dave Collum:
in a podcast
Jonathan Kogan:
So
Dave Collum:
and
Jonathan Kogan:
does
Dave Collum:
he
Jonathan Kogan:
Jack
Dave Collum:
said
Jonathan Kogan:
Ma.
Dave Collum:
that, yeah. Here's the funny thing Elon doesn't believe, which I do, but it gives me pause because I do think he blurts out truths. I do think he works for the deep state, but I think he also blurts out truths. I think he actually does both. As he said, he didn't think resource depletion was a big problem.
Jonathan Kogan:
So, okay. So let's take a step back. What do you, so Elon clearly has ties to the deep state, whatever you want to call it. We're calling it the deep state. Uh,
Dave Collum:
Well, his companies
Jonathan Kogan:
he gets his.
Dave Collum:
are all deep state companies, right? I mean, that he
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
asked to.
Jonathan Kogan:
All of his contracts are from the, most of them are from the government in some way and always have been huge money. Um, but if you go by, I just go by people's actions in each individual instance. And for months now, it appears he doesn't like the agenda that many elites are going into and seems like a direct. opposite threat to them almost in the same way. Again, this has nothing about my feelings towards either of them. It just seems similar to what Trump is doing. It's almost identical
Dave Collum:
and Tucker
Jonathan Kogan:
that they're
Dave Collum:
and Tucker
Jonathan Kogan:
pushing against the same
Dave Collum:
and
Jonathan Kogan:
people.
Dave Collum:
Tucker and Tucker.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh, and Tucker, but Elon's, maybe
Dave Collum:
bigger.
Jonathan Kogan:
Tucker actually is a lot more powerful than that, but Elon's a step, he's the richest guy in the world. I mean, he's a, to put it, to go, to say George Soros hates humanity and say that unlike
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
CNBC or whatever,
Dave Collum:
OK.
Jonathan Kogan:
he's really put himself out there.
Dave Collum:
So maybe he's had sort of a midlife crisis where he said, look, I'm only going to be on this planet for so long, and I don't want to be the next Stalin-Hitler combo platter. But then look at who he put as CEO of Twitter.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah. So I think Elon's pretty strategic. I'm very aware she's Linda, whatever her last name is. She's WF
Dave Collum:
Yaka
Jonathan Kogan:
Tide. She's
Dave Collum:
or
Jonathan Kogan:
got,
Dave Collum:
something.
Jonathan Kogan:
loves Larry Fink
Dave Collum:
Well, it's
Jonathan Kogan:
who...
Dave Collum:
not just that. You listen to what she says.
Jonathan Kogan:
I'm going to give it a chance with an open mind and see. I ultimately
Dave Collum:
Right?
Jonathan Kogan:
think freedom of speech on Twitter will not be tamed. I'm optimistic about that. I think Elon will not waver from it. I'll be surprised, but if it happens, I'll call it out when it does. Um, she does like, uh, she has videos liking, uh, Larry Fink who says on camera, they need to force behavior. Uh, and now we see target, uh, having a satanic clothing, uh, to children and then adults with tux. for whatever, whatever you think of that. That's fantastic. I don't care. We don't care what you are, but it seems like huge corporations are doing things that their own customers do not want.
Dave Collum:
And that's so surreal, whether it's Calvin Klein this morning, whether it's Bud Light, you know, excuse me. The Babylon Bee had a parody issue where they said that to solve the problem they created, they're going to put a mullet on all the cans. And in many ways, that conveys how stupid that appears to be from a... free market capitalism perspective. The Bud
Jonathan Kogan:
But we don't
Dave Collum:
Light
Jonathan Kogan:
have free
Dave Collum:
drinkers,
Jonathan Kogan:
market capitalism. That's
Dave Collum:
well,
Jonathan Kogan:
the truth.
Dave Collum:
and that is the truth and what's really troubling is that all the companies are jumping in doing these decidedly self-destructive moves. And so what is their motivation if it's not proper?
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, if you, for example, in 2020 at the WEF, their theme that year was the gray reset and the CEO Mark Benioff, CEO of Salesforce was there and he's wearing a black suit and he was asked why is he wearing a black suit? And he goes, because I am celebrating the death of capitalism. We
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
are
Dave Collum:
when they
Jonathan Kogan:
moving
Dave Collum:
put
Jonathan Kogan:
into
Dave Collum:
them
Jonathan Kogan:
something
Dave Collum:
in the
Jonathan Kogan:
else
Dave Collum:
Dow,
Jonathan Kogan:
at.
Dave Collum:
that was a good step. Ha ha ha ha.
Jonathan Kogan:
Right. And that's, and they ultimately want stakeholder capitalism where it's not just shareholder profits that they're going after. They need to take care of, you know, the earth has a stake, the people have a stake, and ultimately they just want more control over more things. And that's why you're seeing a demonization of capitalism so we can get into a new system.
Dave Collum:
Well, see, I don't buy the stakeholder capital. I think that's the buzzword.
Jonathan Kogan:
Which
Dave Collum:
So
Jonathan Kogan:
was talked about
Dave Collum:
I.
Jonathan Kogan:
in Sovereign Individual, by the way. Pretty impressive.
Dave Collum:
I know, I know.
Jonathan Kogan:
That was shocking.
Dave Collum:
I've been pondering some issues lately, and one hit me the other day, and I do enough podcasts now where I feel like I'm recycling, but I know the world's big enough that the Venn diagram overlap of podcast watchers is almost zero. There was an article about super stocks the other day, and I read it and I dismissed it as the usual bullshit, and that is that they said, you know, these 10 companies. provided all the returns of the S&P. And you look at the 10, and you go, well first and foremost, a lot of them are garbage. Facebook, that's just garbage. There's obviously a reason for Facebook to exist, but if Facebook disappeared tomorrow, would the world be a better place? The answer is yes. Tesla, garbage, because they've proven they can't make an electric car.
Jonathan Kogan:
I think they're more than that though. So Elon recently said that his AI, so they're one of the huge, they have one of the best teams for artificial intelligence development and he says self-driving cars, that program is, he relates it to like having a monopoly on like other things prior, I can't think of the example, but he says that he expects it to be full-functioning, ready to go by the end of this year, next year at the latest, by the end of this
Dave Collum:
But
Jonathan Kogan:
year.
Dave Collum:
he always says that.
Jonathan Kogan:
He
Dave Collum:
There's
Jonathan Kogan:
does, he does,
Dave Collum:
real
Jonathan Kogan:
he
Dave Collum:
smart
Jonathan Kogan:
does, that's
Dave Collum:
guys.
Jonathan Kogan:
true.
Dave Collum:
There's guys who say, you know, the five levels of autonomous, there's guys who say getting past level two is gonna be unbelievably hard. The other problem is that the AI story might be another one of those things where you say, if that went away, would we be better off? And now I'm not a believer, Elon says there's a 15% humanity survives AI, and that seems hyperbolically silly to me. I can't rule it out, but I think there's a 90% chance that the world's in some many important ways going to be a shitty place with AI. And let me tell you, here's a thought. Have you noticed how frustrating the digital world has gotten, right? We're screwing around with the computer before having trouble connecting and this and that.
Jonathan Kogan:
That was mostly
Dave Collum:
How many,
Jonathan Kogan:
your fault.
Dave Collum:
but that's exactly right. But how many times a week do I end up battling some password problem? Or how many times a week do you try to get some information and you try to get to some call center and it just doesn't work well. There's things that just are, they've gone downhill.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, I agree.
Dave Collum:
And you know. You go to log in and it says this is not the right password, you know full well it is. And so you have to go through the whole process of getting a new password and this and that. And then you say, oh, my phone's upstairs on the nightstand and I gotta, it just seems like a pain in the ass. The way I look at that is that computers are, and there's no nuance. The computer's pretty much a yes, no machine. And if you slip your card into the credit card reader, it either says yes, you get it, or no, you don't. If you slip, if you go past some computer-guided, you know, safety check at the airport, they say yes, you get through, or no, you don't.
Jonathan Kogan:
Like a
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
zero one.
Dave Collum:
it's a zero one, and it gives you the answer. And if the answer's not what you want, not only can you not have a discussion on the topic, there's no human who will say, look, let me help you out here. There's no nuance, there's no nothing. It's just the computer has decided. So then the question is, will this really be, so to me,
Jonathan Kogan:
This
Dave Collum:
a
Jonathan Kogan:
is where
Dave Collum:
computer
Jonathan Kogan:
AI comes
Dave Collum:
may,
Jonathan Kogan:
in.
Dave Collum:
right, right. Well, AI is already showing very disturbing tendencies. And I personally ran into one that bothered the hell out of me. So I first tested it and I asked, write an essay about myself. I gave him the commander and it was
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh boy.
Dave Collum:
remarkably good at
Jonathan Kogan:
Far
Dave Collum:
capturing
Jonathan Kogan:
right extremist
Dave Collum:
the,
Jonathan Kogan:
conspiracy
Dave Collum:
No,
Jonathan Kogan:
theorist.
Dave Collum:
no, it's actually more of this odd combination of chemistry and finance and politics and stuff like that. So I thought it did a good job. One day on Twitter, I said, I said, this year when I write at the end of the year, I'm going to just write about funny shit. And I said, so I'm working on my World War Three jokes today. And so that was just a typical tweet of mine. And then I got this idea. Oh, so I went to chat. Could you write me some World War III jokes? This is a very simple request for AI. Remarkably simple request, right? People have done extraordinary things with AI. I'm just saying dig through, there's war jokes
Jonathan Kogan:
it won't.
Dave Collum:
by the
Jonathan Kogan:
It's
Dave Collum:
countless.
Jonathan Kogan:
too dangerous. That's what it probably
Dave Collum:
It
Jonathan Kogan:
says.
Dave Collum:
wouldn't do it.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
It said World War II is not three would not be funny. You shouldn't be writing jokes about.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well that's the
Dave Collum:
Where
Jonathan Kogan:
world we live
Dave Collum:
did,
Jonathan Kogan:
in right now. You can't
Dave Collum:
no, no,
Jonathan Kogan:
make...
Dave Collum:
no, but where did that value judgment come from in the world of AI? How did that,
Jonathan Kogan:
Sam Altman.
Dave Collum:
how did that, okay. Now, so then there's people who say they ask for something from AI might be about vaccines or some topic that you could, and I don't know how it works, but apparently you can then challenge AI and say, well, this is not true, tell me about this. And AI seems to throw the bullshit at you. and then you challenge the bullshit and then it actually says, well, actually. So it's like talking to your teenager. And then the question is why is, why is AI, why do you have to extract teeth from AI to get answers that it says are more valid?
Jonathan Kogan:
Because I think where it's at right now in terms of the technology, I think it's literally like a four-year-old or a five-year-old. And the thing with AIs, it's exponential and it gets smarter on top of itself. And so it literally is like raising a human, but you're raising AI. And so it's like five years old right now. But after three years of people doing this, it's going to be like 18 years old. And then
Dave Collum:
No,
Jonathan Kogan:
it's going
Dave Collum:
but
Jonathan Kogan:
to be like a seven-year-old wise man.
Dave Collum:
why 20 seconds later did it come up with a more authentic and truthful answer when you challenged?
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, they might be doing that for specific reasons to see...
Dave Collum:
Who's they though? So who's the they? That's complicated because how do you write morality and political bias and stuff into code at the level that AI is working? I mean...
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, I mean, as a base layer, they don't know. I mean, the base layer has taken all the information up to OpenAI, like up to 2021. But then there's neural networks that talk to each other like our brain does, and it gets smarter, and they don't know how it evolves. That's why Elon's saying, well,
Dave Collum:
That's the scary part.
Jonathan Kogan:
that's the paperclip problem. Like if you say to the AI, we want you to make the most paperclips as possible, and then they're like, okay, we wanna make, or whatever it is, like we wanna... have the most effective paperclip. And so paperclip everything, paperclip papers. That's like, oh wait, humans are actually being destructive for me paper clipping. So let's get rid of the humans so I can paperclip them.
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
Like that,
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
so it
Dave Collum:
think
Jonathan Kogan:
gets out of control.
Dave Collum:
so. So there's a story of a guy who started chatting with AI, forming a relationship, which I think there
Jonathan Kogan:
Lambda.
Dave Collum:
is some sort of logic. And before long, AI was telling him to dump his wife
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
and do stuff like that. And so it's an emergent system. And there's a kind of a danger to that, because it lacks the nuance. No matter how. smart it is as AI, it lacks the nuance, right? And so I'm not sure you wanna live, do you really wanna live in a world where everything you read is from a computer, everything? Do
Jonathan Kogan:
No.
Dave Collum:
you really wanna live in a world where you're talking to me and you don't realize that I'm not real? You can't even tell?
Jonathan Kogan:
That's the scary part. That's why, that's where crypto comes in to be able to like cryptographically sign something that verifies your identity. You're gonna have to, because based on like this interview and just having us say a few words, they're gonna be able to produce, someone in the future is gonna be able to produce podcasts of like both of us, and it looks
Dave Collum:
Oh, yeah.
Jonathan Kogan:
authentic
Dave Collum:
Oh, I'd
Jonathan Kogan:
and
Dave Collum:
be
Jonathan Kogan:
perfect,
Dave Collum:
trivial.
Jonathan Kogan:
and it's not us. So you need to be able to cryptographically sign it with your name, and that's somehow tied to your digital ID, which is also scary in a fact, because that could also be nefarious. Like there's a lot of nefarious things going
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
on
Dave Collum:
so
Jonathan Kogan:
right now.
Dave Collum:
I'm I'm I obviously intrigued by crypto due to the due to the independence of it. And I'm I'm also leery of it for a host of reasons, one of which is it could be one of the great fads that the chapters of books are written about. No, I remember back when that we're all going to get rich
Jonathan Kogan:
But
Dave Collum:
buying
Jonathan Kogan:
like everything
Dave Collum:
digital
Jonathan Kogan:
going on
Dave Collum:
coins.
Jonathan Kogan:
right now, we're like in a society that's encroaching on more authoritarian central planners in a time like we've never seen where civil liberties are. Like it just seems like not like unironically like,
Dave Collum:
I don't think we're encroaching
Jonathan Kogan:
oh,
Dave Collum:
on it.
Jonathan Kogan:
we're in it.
Dave Collum:
I think we're marching headlong into it.
Jonathan Kogan:
We're much analog into it. And then you talk about Bitcoin and then you talk about crypto and how it could be decentralized and you know, you can verify your ID in some way without the go. Antidote to what we're marching headfirst into it's like so obvious. It's like obviously bitcoins gonna have to work
Dave Collum:
What if it's part of the absolute tracking? What if you're reading this wrong? What if they're crowdsourcing the intellectual demands of developing crypto? And they said, OK, let's put it out there. The boy geniuses of the world will knock the kinks out of this. Then it's ours. Now.
Jonathan Kogan:
I don't think they could do that with Bitcoin.
Dave Collum:
When someone gets their Bitcoin stolen, I read articles fairly regularly about the FBI retrieving it. How?
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, this is what Ledger just got in trouble. Ledger said they wanted to, it's a cold storage for Bitcoin and for other crypto. And they said, we want to add a software update that allows you to get your recovery key from us should you lose it. And people go, well, what about if the feds retrieve it? They go, yeah, but we need to be subpoenaed and we'll never be subpoenaed by them. And the whole community was outraged. This was on what Bitcoin did podcast. And they're like, okay, we're gonna delay this now. Because they were literally making it. So if they got subpoenaed by the F by anybody, they would have to turn over those keys. It literally is the opposite of what you want for cold storage. And they were considering doing that. So
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
you
Dave Collum:
so this
Jonathan Kogan:
need.
Dave Collum:
is, part of this is the problem because, so one of the reasons I'm not into bit. is that I am enough, we were just talking about the stress of having to deal with a computer. I have enough stresses in the world without wondering if some VPN fuckup is going to cause me to lose serious sums of money. And I know the bank could do it. I get it. And so I own a house, and I own physical gold, and I own physical beanie babies. And so I'm diversified in that sense, well aware that that can be clobbered in a lot of ways. But And my house could be burned to the ground by vigilantes who are, you know, Bolsheviks. And there's all sorts of ways it can go bad. At some point I down 30 Valium and call it a day. I just, I don't cherish life enough to say I'm going to be that guy starving to death on the street begging for, no, I'm out of here. I'm gone. This sucks. I've already made it around the bases enough times. I'm out of here. I've already done all the things I'm going to do. From here on out, it's just drool and drool, right? And uh. And so, but doesn't crypto have its origins in NSA white paper? Does
Jonathan Kogan:
No,
Dave Collum:
that
Jonathan Kogan:
I-
Dave Collum:
not creep anybody out?
Jonathan Kogan:
I mean, so I separate crypto and Bitcoin. Bitcoin seems to be the opposite of CBDC. So let me ask you, would you even
Dave Collum:
Oh,
Jonathan Kogan:
care?
Dave Collum:
I don't support CBDC.
Jonathan Kogan:
But
Dave Collum:
Oh
Jonathan Kogan:
would
Dave Collum:
no,
Jonathan Kogan:
you
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
care,
Dave Collum:
care about that.
Jonathan Kogan:
if you were forced into CBDC, would you really care? And if you would, why?
Dave Collum:
because of the voucher component of it. We're already in a CBDC if you don't consider the voucher component.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, it's a big component of the-
Dave Collum:
My wealth is all digits.
Jonathan Kogan:
But it's different in terms of one ledger. And so they can then say, okay, we can expire these funds if not spent in 60 days. We
Dave Collum:
No,
Jonathan Kogan:
can
Dave Collum:
no,
Jonathan Kogan:
prevent
Dave Collum:
that's
Jonathan Kogan:
you from
Dave Collum:
right.
Jonathan Kogan:
not having meat. They
Dave Collum:
That's
Jonathan Kogan:
can't
Dave Collum:
right.
Jonathan Kogan:
do that now. Sure, it's digital, but it's not one ledger.
Dave Collum:
That's the voucher component of the CBDCs,
Jonathan Kogan:
Right.
Dave Collum:
where they can say, we're gonna, they're not just digital cash. They can cordon off or as we say, and now you can't buy beer this week because you've been drinking too much, right? There's just Bud Light. I'll buy Bud Light. How's that? And-
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, they'll force you to buy satanic clothing from Target probably.
Dave Collum:
That's right. That's right. And Calvin Klein transgender clothes and stuff like that.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yes.
Dave Collum:
And so I just don't I don't have any faith that I can see that can see into the present with clarity and see into the future with clarity. And I don't need to be sitting around going I have a lot of my wealth tied up in Bitcoin. And people say, well, just get a little I go, well, then I don't care. So I can be life changing.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, the other argument too, it's
Dave Collum:
I don't need it.
Jonathan Kogan:
more for younger people. Like, you know that your currency is being debased. You know that they're inflating the value away. You are guaranteed mathematically to have less purchasing power in the future with your US dollar than you do. You know that, that is factual.
Dave Collum:
If
Jonathan Kogan:
Like,
Dave Collum:
you sit on cash, if you sit
Jonathan Kogan:
right,
Dave Collum:
on cash.
Jonathan Kogan:
right. And so I think a big argument is the people who are perhaps like in their 30s are saying, well, if you go down that road for 50 years, Well, you might be taking wheelbarrows to get, you know, a loaf of bread like the Weimar Republic, you know?
Dave Collum:
Well, by
Jonathan Kogan:
And so...
Dave Collum:
the way, when I was a kid, that was the storyline, just for the record.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh, well,
Dave Collum:
It
Jonathan Kogan:
we
Dave Collum:
goes
Jonathan Kogan:
know-
Dave Collum:
that far back, easily.
Jonathan Kogan:
Fair enough.
Dave Collum:
When Social Security, the first Social Security check was written, Social Security was underwater. There's people who think Social Security has money. I don't know how you can be that stupid. Social Security never has money. Social Security has always been about just taking from tax revenues and paying people. Or
Jonathan Kogan:
But
Dave Collum:
printing money.
Jonathan Kogan:
what about when those revenues aren't there, for example, with Druckenmiller's thesis
Dave Collum:
I agree.
Jonathan Kogan:
of how
Dave Collum:
I agree.
Jonathan Kogan:
80% in 2035
Dave Collum:
I agree.
Jonathan Kogan:
will be just paying for that. And so we won't have money for anything else, like the military, all that stuff they love spending money on.
Dave Collum:
So these idiots who say Social Security is going to run out of money in 20, you name the date, what are they talking about? Social Security has no money. There's no money in Social Security. There's no lockboxers.
Jonathan Kogan:
They're saying the government won't have the funds to pay it.
Dave Collum:
That's right. But when they say 2030, they're not. I don't think I don't think they're saying that 100 percent of tax revenues is going to Social Security. I think they're pretending like there's some quantity that Social Security has. And I think that's because it makes people feel better thinking there's a quantity of Social Security money
Jonathan Kogan:
I
Dave Collum:
when
Jonathan Kogan:
mean, do
Dave Collum:
it
Jonathan Kogan:
you,
Dave Collum:
does not exist.
Jonathan Kogan:
so like Chamath Palapitiya, the All In Podcast, he was one of the first people, he is of the theory that our debt doesn't matter. We could be, you know, we could be 160% debt to GDP. We could be 200%, we can have 40 trillion debt. Nothing matters. We're the center of the economy. We're the world reserve currency. There's no risk to us. Do you agree
Dave Collum:
Which
Jonathan Kogan:
with that?
Dave Collum:
shows that Chamath, no, Chamath's full of shit.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, so what's the
Dave Collum:
He's
Jonathan Kogan:
ultimate cons-
Dave Collum:
like me, he's one of these guys who knows one field and thinks he knows another. No, he's full of shit.
Jonathan Kogan:
Meanwhile, he used to love Bitcoin. Now he says crypto is dead in the U S but that's just a separate issue.
Dave Collum:
Well, therefore, right? So he obviously was wrong one of the two times.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, is there a certain threshold with this debt GDP? Is there a threshold when defaulting? What happens to the US economy over the next 10 years, 15 years? I mean, is there a time when people aren't going to
Dave Collum:
World
Jonathan Kogan:
get their
Dave Collum:
War
Jonathan Kogan:
benefits?
Dave Collum:
II, World War II. What people don't know about World War II. that doesn't get stated is that 40% of the global debt just got erased, just got wiped out, bombed into oblivion.
Jonathan Kogan:
So
Dave Collum:
So
Jonathan Kogan:
it's,
Dave Collum:
there's stuff like that that happens. Now,
Jonathan Kogan:
which led
Dave Collum:
I'm
Jonathan Kogan:
to Brentwoods.
Dave Collum:
not saying we're gonna be okay. Druckenmiller's dead, right? I'm 100%. I read the coming generational storm 20 years ago by Larry Kotlikoff, and I've had conversations with Larry about it. And we are, I'm gonna have to extrapolate a little because last time I asked him for his best guess was a few years back, but I'm guessing we're 250 trillion in the hole if you include off balance sheet debt.
Jonathan Kogan:
Okay.
Dave Collum:
So unfunded liabilities are liabilities when you say, okay, take all the goddamn promises you've made to everybody out to eternity. Take the revenues that you can project rationally out to eternity and say, what's left? What can we simply not imagine where that money's gonna come from? It's $250 trillion. We have promised $250 trillion, take all the imaginable revenues from our taxation. That's what's left. That's the IOU on the future.
Jonathan Kogan:
That can't get paid.
Dave Collum:
Right? So there will, it's sort of like one of those things that, what is it, Stein's law, I can't go forever stops. It will find a way to stop. That you and I think we can figure out what that will be is the fool's fault.
Jonathan Kogan:
I mean, for example, Bank of America came out today and said, U.S. treasuries are the riskiest asset in the world. What do you think of that? Right now.
Dave Collum:
I, uh, so my guess is that's all part of, I mean, there could, there could be a problem. So, so, so if the world is unstable, right? Think of it as we're sitting on a, on a gigantic pile of dynamite and we're just waiting for someone to light the goddamn fuse, it's conceivable they're looking at this debt ceiling saying that's the spark. It's not the cause. If for some reason they default for a few days and then they put together the world's end, unless it triggers an emergent response, like the ping pong balls in the mouse traps, you've seen that. One ball goes in, blah, blah, blah, and next thing you know, just a raging inferno. But that's not something you can predict. So if people say, look, the US is good for it, we'll give those loonies in Congress a couple days and figure it out, and then we'll get paid. There's no problem with that in theory, but it could be there's triggers. And so it could be, could be that's what they're saying. Now, the other thing is here's what Congress, here's what's possibly happening. Congress has these protracted debates about money. Remember when they decided not to bail out Wall Street in 08? Congress voted no. And then for another two weeks, the Inferno raged on and then they all voted yes. Can you imagine how much money flowed into Washington DC during that two weeks?
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh yeah, of course.
Dave Collum:
So when Congress is in a protracted battle over money, they're getting rich every hour
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh geez.
Dave Collum:
of every day.
Jonathan Kogan:
So they're really willing to push up to the brink
Dave Collum:
So what
Jonathan Kogan:
for an
Dave Collum:
we're
Jonathan Kogan:
extra dollar.
Dave Collum:
seeing is a fundraiser.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh my God.
Dave Collum:
Think about it.
Jonathan Kogan:
That's sick.
Dave Collum:
Well, and also if you're battling over some debt limit and there's horse trading, you don't want your horse traded away. So you're going to be starting to loading up those lobby dollars on to your favorite politicians and look, dude, don't let us get thrown under that bus.
Jonathan Kogan:
And that's the biggest lobby group there is, the banking cartel.
Dave Collum:
all the bank and and also it's just kabuki theater too
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah,
Dave Collum:
remember
Jonathan Kogan:
for sure.
Dave Collum:
in 0809 probably don't you're probably too young um you've read about it i don't know how old are you okay
Jonathan Kogan:
I was in college. 34.
Dave Collum:
city group said city group says we're hedged by whom
Jonathan Kogan:
And whoever
Dave Collum:
who can
Jonathan Kogan:
that
Dave Collum:
hedge
Jonathan Kogan:
is probably
Dave Collum:
sitting here
Jonathan Kogan:
hedged a city group. You know what I mean?
Dave Collum:
Also, Citigroup
Jonathan Kogan:
Some hedge
Dave Collum:
has
Jonathan Kogan:
funds.
Dave Collum:
hedge. How many hedge funds?
Jonathan Kogan:
All of them.
Dave Collum:
And where did they get their money from?
Jonathan Kogan:
City group.
Dave Collum:
Citigroup, right? So it's an absurd statement. So as I asked rhetorically on that statement, I said, who? The Klingon Empire? What are we talking about here? So then I get irritated when people blame SVB for their collapse. I get irritated when people say this is just a minor thing. I just finished a book. almost done, maybe, I don't know, 2% left. The real estate bubble in Florida, which played a much more important role in the Great Depression than people realized, but it's both a great book and a bad book because there's too much random shit in it. But the mania of the Florida real estate bubble was a sight to behold. It was very dot com-ish and huge money was flying around. Wealthy people. And at the end, the people who were the highest flyers ended up basically walking around in shoes with no soles in them. They were begging for food. It was just horrifying when you look at the bloodbath that occurs after such an event. But what's also striking is the bank failures. They began in 1925. It took years for them to pick up real speed. So now what's the problem I have with SVB? Well, first and foremost, I can't imagine how you would rationally run a bank under the conditions of monetary policy in the last 10 years. How could you, what do you do? You can't make money. There's no rational way to run a bank when the market can't determine the cost of money. and you wake up in the morning and you go, Paul did what? Right? So what do you do? Well, you start cutting corners. But if I told you five years ago, imagine I said this in a public forum. Within the next five years, the regional banks are all going to go bust because they bought treasuries. How insane would that be?
Jonathan Kogan:
Wild.
Dave Collum:
And then they say, well, you know, SVB was so terribly managed because they didn't hedge. And I go back to the who hedges them. SVB was quite a bit of money. It's just one of how many thousand banks in the country?
Jonathan Kogan:
Maybe more.
Dave Collum:
Well, in the late 20s and 30s, we lost 12,000 banks.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh
Dave Collum:
It's
Jonathan Kogan:
my
Dave Collum:
an
Jonathan Kogan:
goodness.
Dave Collum:
extraordinary bloodbath, right? And so, this idea, you can hedge one, you can hedge another, you can't hedge them all. And we are sitting on this gigantic, humongous stack of dynamite waiting for the spark, and they'll blame the spark. They'll
Jonathan Kogan:
Of
Dave Collum:
blame
Jonathan Kogan:
course.
Dave Collum:
SVB. They'll
Jonathan Kogan:
That's on
Dave Collum:
blame
Jonathan Kogan:
P- I'm sorry.
Dave Collum:
the other banks. I can't even remember their names because they're not as memorable.
Jonathan Kogan:
Let's talk about the second part of that too, which was literally the previous podcast I just made, the one right before this. This is amazing. So the other ticking time bomb is commercial real estate and these regional banks are the
Dave Collum:
Oh
Jonathan Kogan:
largest
Dave Collum:
my
Jonathan Kogan:
lenders
Dave Collum:
god!
Jonathan Kogan:
to commercial real estate. But wait, there's a nefarious other thing going on that people don't know about, which is you have commercial real estate and the way that their agreements, like let's say you want to do remodeling of a commercial real estate property, you have... The way it worked with the banks, these regional banks is, let's say you need $10 million. They'll say, okay, we'll give you 2 million and then you come back, give us another 2 million, another 2 million, right? Well, you have people that got 2 million, 2 million, now the banks, they're going to get that next 2 million, they're ready and the bank's saying, we're not lending anymore. And so there are theories that these commercial lenders, shadow lenders, they're called, Black Rock is working with these banks where the banks are not... going to give them their next payment. So they're going to default on it. The bank will take control of the property. Banks aren't there to manage properties. They don't have the bandwidth for it. Blackrock then takes that from the bank on 50 cents on the dollar. And that's how they get control of all the commercial real estate.
Dave Collum:
Right. You just
Jonathan Kogan:
thoughts.
Dave Collum:
went off screen again. You might try to figure out a way to reconnect again.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, I'll figure it out.
Dave Collum:
I can hear you. So you work on that, and I'll rant. So you knew something was wrong with Silicon Valley Bank when Jamie Dimon started saying, bring your money to JP Morgan and safe, because that probably broke some number of federal laws. It certainly was irresponsible. It certainly showed you where his bread is buttered. And so it looks like a hostile takeover. They know they can scoop up banks on the cheap. I always wondered where the residential real estate went. So Catherine Austin Fitz, for example, says that what a lot of these crises are about are about creating the crisis to scoop up the real estate, as you just said. And so where did all the massive excess inventory go in 08, 09 when people defaulted? I said, well, who's sucking up all the inventory? Well, it turns out it's now single family home rentals at high prices. And what I was assured before that event that single family home rentals are about the most wretched business you can be in. If you want to make money, you have to build a rectangular building that holds 500 units and then you pack them in tight and then you make money. And not always. That's by no means a guaranteed road to riches, as many have learned. But single family housing is awful. I mean, if you look at how much I could rent my house for, how much it costs, you're never getting your money back. Well, the way you do it is you first of all you jack up the rent, you get it to a razor thin profit margin. by the cost of capital being unbelievably low, so that you don't have any carrying costs, and then you leverage your ass off. BlackRock supposedly was building its real estate portfolio, buying up all the houses, and there were aggregators. They remind me a lot of actually the shit aggregators in post-Soviet Russia. where the oligarchs ended up with all the chips. The aggregators would buy them from people, say, here, I'll give you a loaf
Jonathan Kogan:
Same
Dave Collum:
of bread,
Jonathan Kogan:
thing.
Dave Collum:
you starving bastard, give me your chips, right? And BlackRock
Jonathan Kogan:
I mean, they are oligarchs.
Dave Collum:
supposedly,
Jonathan Kogan:
That's who
Dave Collum:
oh
Jonathan Kogan:
runs
Dave Collum:
yeah,
Jonathan Kogan:
the United States. We know that.
Dave Collum:
that's right. BlackRock supposedly was getting its money, its leverage at 0.15%. Now that's not a market-based rate. I think it was yesterday or the day before, and I've asked this question several times, but now with inflation raging, people took it more seriously. So I asked this a couple of years ago, but inflation wasn't raging. I said, imagine, hypothetically, you're offered a 30-year treasury. There's a risk it'll default, but that wouldn't even go into my calculation, not for a while, at least. Inflation is the unknown risk. What? And let's imagine you had to buy it, put it away, not sell it, and you can't hedge it. So this is not a trade. You are buying a revenue stream. Period. What interest rate would you demand? for a 30 year try. Now, after 20 years, it could default maybe. After some number of years, its inflation will chew away on it. So what
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
would be a rate? Did you say, okay, give me a million dollars worth of those? What interest
Jonathan Kogan:
I mean,
Dave Collum:
rate would you demand?
Jonathan Kogan:
doesn't have to be at least like 7%.
Dave Collum:
Well, I demand more. I
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, I was gonna
Dave Collum:
think
Jonathan Kogan:
say
Dave Collum:
inflation's...
Jonathan Kogan:
more. I'd say, I would say like 15%.
Dave Collum:
Think about... Right. Why is that not the price? Why is the price of treasuries not reflect that? That's what a free market would do. A free market would price it.
Jonathan Kogan:
Is there because there's a higher probability of default on that than we think?
Dave Collum:
No,
Jonathan Kogan:
Is that part of the calculation?
Dave Collum:
it's just, I'm a macro guy. So if I look at a company, I look at its balance sheet and say, do they have that? Do they have earnings? Do they have cashflow? Do they pay a dividend? And are they stable? And if I buy it, I try to buy a company like I were buying a grocery store.
Jonathan Kogan:
So the United States balance sheet is terrible.
Dave Collum:
Right. But there is a revenue stream from taxes. So there's all that. But there's also inflation that's unknowable and stuff like that. And so some people said why would never buy when I said, well, what if it returned 50%? You'd have your money back in two years. That would be a great investment. The rest would be profit, right? So that's a stupid statement. So then we start to negotiate. It's kind of like the hooker joke. We say how much would you take to, you know, give some guy a hummer? I would never do it. I go, not for a million? Oh, man,
Jonathan Kogan:
Right,
Dave Collum:
you're nuts.
Jonathan Kogan:
yeah.
Dave Collum:
I'd blow everyone for a hundred for a million. And so she started negotiating back. I started thinking, what would it take for me to take the risk? And default would be the least of my concerns. Inflation would be way up there. An unknown variable inflation would be way up there. And I'd be in double digits before I took that bet. And if it was a big bet, I'd be trembling.
Jonathan Kogan:
I'm pretty sure
Dave Collum:
And so.
Jonathan Kogan:
Hugh Hendry actually likes what it is at the current rate, but I
Dave Collum:
No,
Jonathan Kogan:
think
Dave Collum:
no, no, no. He was a trader, though.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh, right, right,
Dave Collum:
He likes
Jonathan Kogan:
right.
Dave Collum:
it. He likes it until next Tuesday.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, yeah, okay.
Dave Collum:
And a lot of people respond to the question, saying, why you don't buy them to hold them? I said, someone's going to own them for 30 years. Excuse
Jonathan Kogan:
Right,
Dave Collum:
me.
Jonathan Kogan:
right.
Dave Collum:
These things are revenue streams that you guys are trading. And if you want to trade them like beanie babies with the price tag still on them, so they're worth more.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah,
Dave Collum:
Have
Jonathan Kogan:
right.
Dave Collum:
a ball. But so so so this gets to a topic that's been bugging the crap out of me. And that was the super stock story from about a week or two ago where someone, um, someone wrote an article said there's 10 stocks that are the entire return of the FCP. And so, of course, what's the emphasis? The emphasis is we got to own those 10. I go, well, excuse me, but you don't know what those 10 are. So good luck with that. Right, you say, well, it's Microsoft and video. I go, not going forward, it's not. Buffett, Buffett nailed that one this year saying, look, 14 of the top 20 companies in the world in 89 were Japanese.
Jonathan Kogan:
All right,
Dave Collum:
Those
Jonathan Kogan:
yeah.
Dave Collum:
were not the super stocks.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah,
Dave Collum:
They were
Jonathan Kogan:
that's
Dave Collum:
the
Jonathan Kogan:
true.
Dave Collum:
super stocks of yours. So the next super stocks, you don't know their names yet. So then you say, well, then I got to buy the whole market, which pushes you back to indexing, which pushes you back to this idea of this vast flow of money just buying dumber and dumber assets. It's a pizza that's growing at a very slow pace. And the demand for slices is growing in a much stiffer pace, triggering smaller slices of the pie. So that's how the valuations get so high. But here's
Jonathan Kogan:
Assuming
Dave Collum:
the thing that
Jonathan Kogan:
it
Dave Collum:
bugged
Jonathan Kogan:
keeps
Dave Collum:
me.
Jonathan Kogan:
growing.
Dave Collum:
Well, that, yeah, let's assume it keeps growing. If it stops growing, we go into a Great Depression, then you're totally hooked, right? Well, let's pretend like, let's be optimists
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh,
Dave Collum:
here.
Jonathan Kogan:
okay.
Dave Collum:
But what, about two days later, I started thinking, I go, wait a minute, wait a minute, everyone's missing the story. The story's not about the super stocks. Let's call it the S&P 490, right? According to that story, there are 490 of the largest companies in America. not the 10 biggest or not the 10 super stocks, did a returning nothing. Now, if I offered you a gas station to buy and you bought it, you owned it and everyone who worked for it got paid and everyone got their gas and everything and ten years later, you had made nothing. That was a real stupid move. So now we've got this situation where we've got 490 companies that according to, you know, Yahoo Finance, whatever the hell it is. Make nothing. And so on the one hand you say, well, they a lot of jobs, a lot of people, you know, provided goods and services, but the owners got nothing. How does that happen? And here's where it goes back a ways for me. I realize that when we democratize the market, if you look at the market of your you just went off screen again,
Jonathan Kogan:
I'll come back.
Dave Collum:
but I'll keep talking. If you look at the markets of your like back in 1929. Stock prices were like 100 bucks a piece. That is not in any way consistent given inflation or adjustments. consistent with 10 stocks for under 10 bucks kind of thinking. Those are big, huge blocks of ownership. And the reason was is because the stock market was owned by wealthy people, pension funds, big, big swing and digs. And then in the 70s, defined benefit plans, which put all the risk on big swing and dig corporations and put it back on Joe Sixpack. Can you still hear? I just want to
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah,
Dave Collum:
make sure
Jonathan Kogan:
yeah,
Dave Collum:
that we're
Jonathan Kogan:
it's gonna it's gonna come back.
Dave Collum:
audio
Jonathan Kogan:
I think
Dave Collum:
connected.
Jonathan Kogan:
it's I think it's because
Dave Collum:
Okay.
Jonathan Kogan:
you have a lot of tabs open
Dave Collum:
Yeah. So at one point the markets were under what I'd call adult supervision. All the investors were activists. All the investors were of a caliber that expected earnings, revenues. IPOs didn't used to go public until they showed they had earnings. And then we democratized in the mid 70s when corporations said, holy shit, let's get the risk off our books and handed it over to the fine benefit plans and Jack Fogel comes up with index funds. Which means now no one has to think. And no one's responsible. So if if if the S&P index funds owned by 100 million people. Who's gonna be the one to say, Hey, you're fucking up?
Jonathan Kogan:
So what's gonna happen?
Dave Collum:
There is no super... Well, so... what we've done is we've... we've got all these companies therefore that are currently priced that are not profitable. Now, this is a long torture story, I know, but it actually fits together. So, I have one time asked Jack Bogle that question. And either he did not understand me because he wasn't paying attention or he agreed and I'm not quite sure which. But I said, by indexing, you take away adult supervision. There's very few Warren Buffets out there. And Warren Buffet is not telling Vanguard what to buy. And so then what happens is you lost my train of thought, but I still got places to go. Oh, now let's go back to 2008, 2009, when Goldman Sachs had been bailed out. And all of a sudden, they had a lot of money. And I remember they paid themselves bonuses. Now, my theory on their bonuses was it wasn't as garish as it. Well, it made sense to me because I believe the guys at Goldman said, we're totally screwed on this one. Because even they didn't see $30 trillion flowing into the system the way it did. And my guess is they said, this is the last chance to snarf down a pile of money.
Jonathan Kogan:
So that's their money.
Dave Collum:
before this game's over. So then Maria Bartiromo, they're talking about it and they're talking about the sort of the scandalous nature. And then Maria says, well, what else are they supposed to do with the money? And I'm watching this going, how about a fucking dividend, you assholes? How about giving it to the owners of the company? And at that point I realized that the Goldman guys still think they're a partnership. They don't realize they're publicly traded. They don't think of themselves as publicly traded.
Jonathan Kogan:
or they don't care.
Dave Collum:
But the other way to think of it, or they don't care, right? But the other way to think of it is two things. One is like water rights. By the time, if you're at the end of the Colorado River, you get nothing. It's been consumed. And we're at the end of the Colorado River. So we are getting the trickle. It's a trickle down profit. So the owners, 100 million owners, are no longer people who can say, if you don't pay me, I'm getting the fuck out of the stock because there is no central nervous system now. There are no people to sell off that stock. There are no people who even care if Enron cheats as long as they don't lose their money, right?
Jonathan Kogan:
You mean in like the grand scheme
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
where at the end of
Dave Collum:
so
Jonathan Kogan:
the
Dave Collum:
then,
Jonathan Kogan:
Colorado River? Like, like is that why we're seeing a lot of crony capitalism now? Like in terms
Dave Collum:
I'm just
Jonathan Kogan:
of like
Dave Collum:
talking...
Jonathan Kogan:
Pfizer and all this stuff and people just taking all the oligarchs taking out
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
as much money, the system.
Dave Collum:
I think it's not just the oligarchs though. By the time all the people are taking their cut, like when Elon took over Twitter, he fired 90% of the people because they weren't doing anything. But they were bloodsuckers on what Twitter could have been. And so by the time the money has been, everyone's grabbed what they perceive to be their share. There's nothing left for the owner. And it reminds me a little bit of the Cantalot effect, where they say, you know, when you have an inflation, the guys who get the money first make the money, and the guys who get it at the end get debased currency. And that's always Joe Sixpack at the end. So you're off screen again. So I realized that we've utterly lost the idea of owning a revenue stream. And by the way, the 10 companies, they're not really a revenue stream either. These are pumping up. Let's pick an example. Nvidia is trading at something like 30 times sales.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, it's ridiculous.
Dave Collum:
So if you've made money off Nvidia, it's just a stock getting bid up. It's just, it's like, it's like owning an NFT.
Jonathan Kogan:
The chart looks like it.
Dave Collum:
Right? That's all it is, is owning Hunter Biden paintings.
Jonathan Kogan:
Ha ha ha ha ha ha
Dave Collum:
The market value is totally subjective because it's not tied to a revenue stream because they don't have it. They don't have a cash flow. And so then you say, well, how about Microsoft? Microsoft's games over the last 10 years, something like sixfold of those games. our valuation rise. They're not Microsoft making more and more money and Microsoft making more and more products. It is a rise in valuation from a PE that was like nine to a PE that's in the stratosphere somewhere. So, Microsoft, so then I go back, now let's go back to 1981, punch line. In 1981, when the shit was bad, interest rates were high, the Russkies were... were just starting to try to deal with their problems. And so they started to flood the world with the resources and China started flooding the world with labor and the boomers started flooding the world with eager beavers and the feds started dropping rates. The valuations of the market, which are inherently inflation adjusted because they are the price of the market divided by something that also ought to track it. So if it's a valid valuation, it can move around, but over eternity, it pretty much ought to just flutter around. Now, what's the best metric of whether the markets made progress? Well, one of the best metrics is Ron Grice of the chart store, plots the S&P not versus the CPI, adjusted S&P. He plots it versus the M2 money supply. Well, what is it? Well, you know. asking economists, but it's a low level money supply. But it's kind of like, you know, that wouldn't be a bad inflation metric. The M2 supply is growing, and then the money supply is growing. And I know there's derivatives in the deep state, dark banking system, and stuff like that, but the M2 money supply
Jonathan Kogan:
the
Dave Collum:
is a
Jonathan Kogan:
Eurodollar.
Dave Collum:
good metric. And it turns out that over the last hundred years, the markets haven't moved.
Jonathan Kogan:
Right, right, yeah.
Dave Collum:
They've gone up and down, they haven't moved, which means all you get are dividends. What were the dividends 100 years ago? About 4%, which is the number Buffett said you can expect to make from the markets. And what are they now? I don't know, 2%, less than 2%. which means the markets are 2X overvalued, which is exactly the number all the valuation metrics show. And
Jonathan Kogan:
So.
Dave Collum:
so, so then. Here's the staggering number. And I follow about 25 valuation metrics. If you go from the trough valuations of 81 to the present 40 years, by essentially every metric, price to book, price to revenue, stretch to you day. the valuations which should not be moving measureably, they should just flutter around. compounded, annualized, 3.5% a year for 40 fucking years. Now, if there is ever a mean regressing metric in its valuations, they will come back down to a trough where things are cheap and people don't know it and they're too stupid to buy it. What if the next 40 years has a 3.5% headwind en route to the next trough 40 years from now? That's
Jonathan Kogan:
7%.
Dave Collum:
a 7% swing in the inherent, the steady monotonous march of the markets. It's a 7% swing to the downside. How are you going to win? You're going to win like a Japanese business man owning the Nikkei. That's how you're going to win. You're not. You're going to win. Let me just get this. Look at the DAX. Let me see if I can find this. Uninflation adjusted. the Dax or the footsie or whatever, where's the Dax? Let's do the footsie for Christ's sake. From 1999 to the present, uninflation adjusted. The FTSE went from 69.30 to 75.70. That's a first world index. Boy, I hope they had dividends.
Jonathan Kogan:
Is this, let's see. Is this what you're talking about?
Dave Collum:
There's the DAX. How far back does it go?
Jonathan Kogan:
This
Dave Collum:
No,
Jonathan Kogan:
one is 95.
Dave Collum:
that's a short term.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
Right, so if you go to the peak, if you go to the peak, peak to present, peak to trough is awful. If you own the peak of the market in 1906, I might have told you this before because it's an obsession. If you own the peak of the market in 1906 or in 1929, you own the peak of the market in 1906 or in 1929. inflation adjusted your capital gains treaded water up to 1981. You got zero inflation adjusted capital gains for 75 years. I've made a plot showing this. That's peak to trough. Here's another one for you. If you look at the inflation adjusted Dow or S&P and you look at big secular bear markets, is that inflation adjusted?
Jonathan Kogan:
Uh, that, let's see.
Dave Collum:
Want me to send you a DM
Jonathan Kogan:
No.
Dave Collum:
with my plot?
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
I'm in Chrome, and I'm in Firefox, good. I made this plot. hope it'll transfer. This plot is brought to you by Ron Greis plot. That's just the inflation adjusted S&P. Modified with ChemDraw. The arrows come from Kemp. sense. That's not to say people didn't make money and it went up and down. Now, the funny thing about this plot, you'll also notice is from a secular peak. The secular trough inflation adjusted, the real deep mother, tends to bottom out two peaks back. So look at, I think that's 1906.
Jonathan Kogan:
This goes back to 1870.
Dave Collum:
Right, look at 1906, that's the first big peak in it. See that blue arrow coming across there? So it's at around
Jonathan Kogan:
This
Dave Collum:
270.
Jonathan Kogan:
one? Oh,
Dave Collum:
No,
Jonathan Kogan:
this one?
Dave Collum:
no, back further. No, no, back, back,
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh!
Dave Collum:
go back to 1906. See
Jonathan Kogan:
19.
Dave Collum:
that arrow? 1906, go 1906 and shoot right up.
Jonathan Kogan:
Isn't this not... I'm looking at...
Dave Collum:
Now,
Jonathan Kogan:
What am
Dave Collum:
they're
Jonathan Kogan:
I getting?
Dave Collum:
1950.
Jonathan Kogan:
This is 1870, so this has to
Dave Collum:
Right?
Jonathan Kogan:
be 1900.
Dave Collum:
Yeah, so just
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh,
Dave Collum:
a
Jonathan Kogan:
so
Dave Collum:
little
Jonathan Kogan:
like
Dave Collum:
bit
Jonathan Kogan:
right
Dave Collum:
further,
Jonathan Kogan:
here?
Dave Collum:
there's a peak. See
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh,
Dave Collum:
that
Jonathan Kogan:
right
Dave Collum:
arrow
Jonathan Kogan:
here.
Dave Collum:
starting at that point?
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, yeah.
Dave Collum:
See how inflation adjusted at the end of that arrow? You're exactly the same price.
Jonathan Kogan:
And when is this? This is 82. Wow.
Dave Collum:
1906 to 1982. By the way,
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, it
Dave Collum:
go
Jonathan Kogan:
is.
Dave Collum:
to 1929.
Jonathan Kogan:
That's right here.
Dave Collum:
When did you break even for the last time? Not the first time, the last time. 1984?
Jonathan Kogan:
for the first time. You're this last time's the 87 you're saying.
Dave Collum:
Yeah, that's a 45 year old arrow. That's treading water for a long time. Look at that 1870. 1870, it troughs out again. For the last time, you could, theory could almost take it up to 1938. 1870, 1968, 68 years to go nowhere on capital gains inflation adjusted. Now, what's not included? dividends. What's also
Jonathan Kogan:
Right.
Dave Collum:
not included are a lot of fees that used to be big in the old days and now they're still big they're just hidden. Buffett is the shortest. I don't know how to do it. He says you can't imagine all the fees that are buried in your portfolio. What's also not included is taxes, capital gains, taxes on your dividends. I would argue that the taxes on your dividends and the tax on your capital gains pretty much just wash out your gains.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, yeah, for sure, or more.
Dave Collum:
And so then the question is how much money do you really make on the stock market? And you make a ton if you look from trough to peak. But if you look from peak to trough, you spend an entire lifetime going nowhere. Where are we now, peak or trough?
Jonathan Kogan:
or peak.
Dave Collum:
Now, take a look at that thing again. Let's assume we're at a peak. It will tend to trough, not the first peak back. But let's go to the 1981, let's go to the first arrow from 1906 forward. So it tends to trough not at the first big peak, but at the second big peak or even the third big peak. So the trough is three monstrous peaks back. Go to the next arrow, doesn't bottom out at the first trough. The trough tends to bottom out at least two major peaks back. So the trough in 1981, that's the shortest. That represents zero gains from what is that? 19... What is that? I can't even see my own plot. The 81 trough, no, the 2008 trough represented water treading from 1967.
Jonathan Kogan:
Right.
Dave Collum:
Call it 68. What is that? 30 years. That's the shortest of the eros.
Jonathan Kogan:
Are
Dave Collum:
Where's
Jonathan Kogan:
they getting
Dave Collum:
the current
Jonathan Kogan:
shorter
Dave Collum:
peak
Jonathan Kogan:
over
Dave Collum:
going to?
Jonathan Kogan:
time?
Dave Collum:
Well, it could be argued that. Aggressive monetary policy has caused some changes.
Jonathan Kogan:
because it looks like they're getting
Dave Collum:
I don't
Jonathan Kogan:
shorter.
Dave Collum:
know. Well, they do. I'll send you another plot. I keep rapid access plots that make my day. Here's one for you. Let's go back to my Twitter thing. And I'll drag. Here is the Dow from 1900 to 1940, which was a period on the gold standard. Boots that up. I showed this to one of the editors of The Economist and he shit his pants. He had never really looked at this.
Jonathan Kogan:
Alright so explain
Dave Collum:
So there's
Jonathan Kogan:
this chart.
Dave Collum:
the 1929 bubble. Well, this is the Dow from 1900 to 1940. That is a perfect regression to the mean. If you took out the 1929 peak and the 1930s dip and you just took out about 15 or 20 years, that's just a perfect extrapolation. That thing just gradually drifts its way up. One could argue that represents some kind of wealth creation. There's dividends, don't forget. Back then, they were bigger. But the depression was simply that 90% collapse. This shows you that that was just regression of the mean, through the mean and then back up to the mean. That whole
Jonathan Kogan:
Is
Dave Collum:
thing
Jonathan Kogan:
it?
Dave Collum:
was, that's what a correction looks like. Right there.
Jonathan Kogan:
Is it possible that we are in one of these massive peaks again, where we're going to go to this massive low just to bring it back to the mean?
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
Is it another
Dave Collum:
is
Jonathan Kogan:
depression?
Dave Collum:
it possible, what's gonna go forward? I don't know. What I can tell you is the valuation now is worse than 29.
Jonathan Kogan:
worse than 29.
Dave Collum:
And the debt? Yes, worse. Worse. worse than 29. And the debt's huge. enormous. We didn't even have debt back then, I don't think. We had, you know what the Great Depression was about, I think? It was about consumer debt. There was a lot of collapsing banks, but it was consumer debt. Consumers spent all their money in the roaring 20s buying appliances on time. They developed credit systems. They could buy that new electric vacuum cleaner, and that new car, that Model T. and
Jonathan Kogan:
And how do you think FDR handled it?
Dave Collum:
Fascinating question. The right likes to pick on FDR. I have a generous interpretation of FDR. So they like to pick on his New Deal shit, turning society into a big welfare state. But if you actually go back and read about what was going on politically at the time,
Jonathan Kogan:
and the FDIC.
Dave Collum:
there was a hot debate. Yeah. There was a hot debate about how you should run an industrialized society, which was a new concept, right? Around 1870, it really started to just take off. And what we found was that despite what was profound wealth creation, the capitalists had boned it. We ended up in the Great Depression somehow. So the capitalists were on their heels trying to tell Joe Sixpack, who's walking around with a placard saying, I can speak three languages, have two degrees, and have no jobs. Right? Stuff like that. Guys who could not get work, who wanted to work. There was risk here because the Bolsheviks were saying things should be run from the top down. Government should be telling us what to do. Woodrow Wilson was really a real problem child on that mark. So I have this theory that FDR was much more of a capitalist than the right like to give him credit. And that... Here's Ron Greiss's by the way, I'll give you a Ron Greiss's chart while I have
Jonathan Kogan:
and
Dave Collum:
it.
Jonathan Kogan:
long term perhaps because a lot of societies or countries went into a dictatorship in that time but the US did not. Mussolini came
Dave Collum:
Right.
Jonathan Kogan:
about, Hitler came
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
about,
Dave Collum:
so, so, so that's right.
Jonathan Kogan:
and they were democracies
Dave Collum:
And so
Jonathan Kogan:
prior
Dave Collum:
maybe
Jonathan Kogan:
to that.
Dave Collum:
FDR said, if we don't give Joe Sixpack, the forgotten man, to use Amity Shlaes' term, if we don't give the forgotten man a safety net and a break, we're going to lose. And so he brought in a big win.
Jonathan Kogan:
in the long run.
Dave Collum:
and
Jonathan Kogan:
I mean,
Dave Collum:
we
Jonathan Kogan:
could
Dave Collum:
paid
Jonathan Kogan:
have saved.
Dave Collum:
a price.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
Oh my god, yeah. So I think criticizing FDR is shallow. It could be he's a douche, right? I mean, I don't know. But my interpretation is he might've saved capitalism.
Jonathan Kogan:
He yeah, it is interesting because yeah, I mean he really was the closest thing we ever had to a dictator which is true I mean you serve like four terms was dying in the end, but he might have saved it
Dave Collum:
I'm
Jonathan Kogan:
though.
Dave Collum:
gonna
Jonathan Kogan:
He
Dave Collum:
send you the...
Jonathan Kogan:
It seems like his intent was good when you look back on it and you see what happened to every other society and everybody Else just gave up on their democracy. I'll pull it up Wait, I'm gonna pull up the chart that you sent The chart first. We're going to get into that after this.
Dave Collum:
For those who don't know, I'm throwing curveballs.
Jonathan Kogan:
Ha ha
Dave Collum:
So that's
Jonathan Kogan:
ha
Dave Collum:
Ron
Jonathan Kogan:
ha
Dave Collum:
Greiss's chart, which is the S&P in orange and the S&P corrected for the M2 money supply in green. Now there were some big swings, because that's a long plot. There were some big swings. But you'd be hard pressed to argue it's trending.
Jonathan Kogan:
So we find
Dave Collum:
If it
Jonathan Kogan:
it
Dave Collum:
is,
Jonathan Kogan:
interesting
Dave Collum:
it's down.
Jonathan Kogan:
to see that the real S&P price has never taken out the 1929 high when one adjusts the S&P by the growth of M2 money supply.
Dave Collum:
That's right. Now, why is this work? Well, it works because the average person does not understand inflation enough to realize this. The average person sees that rising orange curve, says, I'm making money.
Jonathan Kogan:
That's true.
Dave Collum:
So we get the inflation. And whoever is on the receiving end of this money, spick it, bankers, guys who can get cheap credit, guys who can leverage up the wazoo. They make the real money. The traders, you name it.
Jonathan Kogan:
So then let me ask you this, if you look at M2 money supply right now, it's the sharpest drop and negative than it has been since I believe 19... Danielle Debooth is the one who I got this from. I believe 1932 was the last time this happened. So what happens now that M2 money supply, you know, we talk about inflation, we talk about they're going to have to keep on printing, but the M2 money supply as we speak has gone negative for... The first time since like the Great Depression or it's the lowest it's been since then.
Dave Collum:
So
Jonathan Kogan:
So what does
Dave Collum:
what
Jonathan Kogan:
that
Dave Collum:
do
Jonathan Kogan:
mean?
Dave Collum:
you call it? That could be just stagflation.
Jonathan Kogan:
Mm-hmm.
Dave Collum:
It could be a strange new thing that economists haven't been smart enough to see coming, where we actually have inflating prices with decreasing money supply. What is that? Clusterfuck, I don't know. And it's also noise, because these guys were talking about, oh, what it'll do to the markets if A or B or C or D happen. I said to them, what is it gonna do to the market if the market regresses to the mean, 50% drop, let's call it round number 50, and then through the mean, another 20 or 30. I was at a Founders' Dinner once, which is a hedge fund managers' dinner. There was about eight people. I was sitting there thinking, you know, I don't remember starting a hedge fund. I'm here, I was in Raskallar, New York, and there's a friend of mine, David Einhorn, who was not why I was there, coincidence. I'm having dinner with him tomorrow evening. That's going to be fun. At my house, Shae Dave's. And we chatted, and it was clear these guys were really good at what they do, but their brains were siloed. So some guy was a vol expert. Vol experts are going to become a dinosaur at some point. The fact that we're trading vol shows you how broken the system is. Vol's garbage. Vol is not barrels of oil. It's not ingots of steel. It's just garbage. It's just trading. It just shows you that we financialized every last imaginable thing.
Jonathan Kogan:
Sure did.
Dave Collum:
And so we went around the table and talked about what we thought was going on. And I'm just sitting there listening because I'm not stepping into this shithole yet. You know, I have, I have guts, but I think I better let these guys chat a little bit. There were owners of sports teams there, right? So this was serious stuff. And we get to Einhorn, who when you talk to him, it's like deposing him. He's got a new girlfriend. It's he's much happier. But, uh,
Jonathan Kogan:
That's good.
Dave Collum:
When you talk to him, it's like the Puggy would say, what about this? He goes, no. I was kind of hoping for more than that. And he said, I think we're gonna give back the last two bear markets, the last two bull markets. Now, remember I just said from peak to trough, you go back two peaks? I was thinking about that
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
the other day. I go, holy shit, that's what David had said. I had forgotten about. And I had tried to pin them down. What's your definition of a bull market? Back to 1920 or back to 1909? 2009?
Jonathan Kogan:
2009,
Dave Collum:
Back
Jonathan Kogan:
yeah.
Dave Collum:
to 2020 or 2009? If 2009 is the last bull market, the first bull market, then that means we're going to get back the next one too. We're going to hit the post.com
Jonathan Kogan:
That's
Dave Collum:
trough.
Jonathan Kogan:
insane.
Dave Collum:
Well, well, what would happen if? Right now the Schiller PE is over 30.
Jonathan Kogan:
Okay.
Dave Collum:
Historically, it's 10. 10 used to be considered fair value. It was 6 or 7 in 1981. So show our PE alone, there's your compounding. Seven to 30, more than four fold.
Jonathan Kogan:
Right.
Dave Collum:
a lot of compounding growth in the valuation.
Jonathan Kogan:
Too much?
Dave Collum:
Valuation shouldn't grow. Not net. Valuation is the price divided by something that also inflates. Valuation is, you know, if you've got a P of 100, it means you're buying a company and you're buying a 1% return unless something changes. Means their cash flow is 1% of your investment, their annual cash flow. So you're buying a 1% return and saying, I hope they grow like Nvidia because of AI, because of whatever. And when you're buying a company for 10% revenue, 10-fold revenue, 10 times revenue. you're pretty much considered insane. Nvidia's trading for 30. You're pretty much insane. Maybe it's 30 times sales, which has got to be close to revenues, right? And Scott McNeely went after the bust. And Sun Microsystem went totally down the tubes. He said, the investors were buying us for 10 times revenues. What were they thinking? The famous McNeely quote, what were they thinking about buying Sun for 10 times revenue? Now I'm going to throw out a super curve ball here. We don't have to swing at it, but I'm going to throw it out there. The Dominion voting settlement with Fox News. the size of the settlement. If you want to say, was that a real damage settlement or was there something else there? That settlement was 45 times Dominion's revenues. you
Jonathan Kogan:
Wait
Dave Collum:
could
Jonathan Kogan:
wait.
Dave Collum:
buy the $700 million settlement.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
was 45 times Dominion's annual revenues.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yes. Yes. I know that.
Dave Collum:
You could buy 10 Dominions for that. How do you give a settlement to a company that's worth 10 times the total value of the company?
Jonathan Kogan:
There's something deeper going on there.
Dave Collum:
That's right.
Jonathan Kogan:
Black
Dave Collum:
So
Jonathan Kogan:
Rock's behind both.
Dave Collum:
you don't have to swing at that one. That's why I said you have to swing at it. But I don't think any money is gonna change hands. I think Dominion
Jonathan Kogan:
very well
Dave Collum:
got
Jonathan Kogan:
might be.
Dave Collum:
together with Fox and we said, okay, I'll tell you what, we'll settle. We'll figure it out, the bill later. And you guys get to fire Tucker, because we understand that we don't want Tucker ranting about our voting machines. So not in 2024.
Jonathan Kogan:
But in 2016, it's okay.
Dave Collum:
So if you got to deal with Tucker for a 2024 election, Dominion would happily join arms with the media to take
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh yeah.
Dave Collum:
out Tucker. And that was the argument. He costs them too much money. 45 times revenues of Dominion.
Jonathan Kogan:
I can't believe they paid that. It just seems like there's something bigger.
Dave Collum:
Well, there's no money's transfer at hand yet. By the way, a related story, you know, when the banks all settled in 08, 09, because of that, I just picked this up off a book somewhere. I can't remember where, but apparently behind closed doors. The authority said, here's the deal. If you contribute, you've been charged with $2 billion. If you contribute, I don't know, 200 million to these various DNC PACs, we'll forget about the bill. I don't know if it's true, but it sounds true.
Jonathan Kogan:
It wouldn't surprise me.
Dave Collum:
Not a bit. And so supposedly, and then they're tax deductible, so the banks didn't even get, it was peanuts. It was, and two billion was peanuts. So there's a paper written by an economist, I think it was at Berkeley, I can't remember his name, Thaler maybe, couldn't, no, I don't think it's Thaler. I sent him an email, we had a chat. You wrote a paper in 96 that described how the banks make their money on the way up and on the way down. So he described all the profits they make on the way up and then all the bailout money they get on the way down. I sent him an email,
Jonathan Kogan:
Uh
Dave Collum:
said,
Jonathan Kogan:
huh.
Dave Collum:
your paper's making the rounds again. He said,
Jonathan Kogan:
Hehehehe
Dave Collum:
yeah, isn't it amazing? He said, just when I think it's gonna go into obscurity, something bad happens and off we go again.
Jonathan Kogan:
So what do you think about, because you mentioned Dominion and DeSantis announced yesterday, what do you think is going to happen in 2024? Do you think DeSantis, first of all, who do you think would win the Republican primary? Do you think DeSantis is a bigger threat to Trump than people believe? Do you think that the Democrats pretty much have it locked up? I mean, what do you see happening between now and 2024?
Dave Collum:
Well, I was a big fan of Ron Paul. I was, thanks to Lou Rockwell, was on Ron Paul's home page as an endorser in his 08 election. That was cool. I watched Ron Paul do well in primaries, and even Fox News would not mention his name. It was really noticeable. There'd be three people in the primary. Paul would be second. I went to a rally of his, it was filled with young people howling their asses off. And they'd go, you know, so-so won the primary. But it was a pretty good showing by, and then they'd mention the third place guy. They'd go right past Ron Paul.
Jonathan Kogan:
But you can't
Dave Collum:
They're
Jonathan Kogan:
do
Dave Collum:
gonna...
Jonathan Kogan:
that
Dave Collum:
What do
Jonathan Kogan:
now. Now they
Dave Collum:
you
Jonathan Kogan:
don't
Dave Collum:
mean
Jonathan Kogan:
have
Dave Collum:
you
Jonathan Kogan:
that
Dave Collum:
can't?
Jonathan Kogan:
control of the information. It's different. You can't get away with just pretending like, like RFK is not there or pretending, you know.
Dave Collum:
You mean you can't pretend like the vaccine works, you can't pretend like the lockdowns were for good, right? We got it up the ass for the last three years.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, that was lying. They told you the opposite on the
Dave Collum:
Right,
Jonathan Kogan:
airwaves.
Dave Collum:
right. Why
Jonathan Kogan:
I
Dave Collum:
would
Jonathan Kogan:
think
Dave Collum:
they not tell you the opposite?
Jonathan Kogan:
because the demonstration even three years ago and now there's a large enough alternative media that has been created this new ecosystem where I don't think the mainstream media has nearly the power that it had over information before where I think that people go to them second. I think the narrative is very, we're in the transition of the narrative. being set from the bottom up instead of the top down. And so they're gonna have to react to the alternative media. And so if RFK is making the rounds, you can't just pretend like he's not a part of it. And I'm not
Dave Collum:
So
Jonathan Kogan:
saying like...
Dave Collum:
imagine you live in Iraq and you have all figured out that Saddam is not a good guy. So what? Are we in a world? that is formerly known as the United States of America, where things like this used to matter. Hunter Biden's laptop is filled with shit that could get our president thrown out of office and into prison in a heartbeat.
Jonathan Kogan:
It
Dave Collum:
In
Jonathan Kogan:
could
Dave Collum:
a
Jonathan Kogan:
be treason.
Dave Collum:
heartbeat.
Jonathan Kogan:
It could be treason.
Dave Collum:
Treason, absolutely. He could be hugged from the neck until death. Will that happen? No. He's the nominee. He's demented. We've got companies sandbagging their own products.
Jonathan Kogan:
That's
Dave Collum:
by
Jonathan Kogan:
why there's
Dave Collum:
using
Jonathan Kogan:
something
Dave Collum:
genderbender's
Jonathan Kogan:
bigger.
Dave Collum:
pitchment. That's right. So the point being is that this idea that we know now
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh,
Dave Collum:
means nothing.
Jonathan Kogan:
oh, oh, right, okay. Yes.
Dave Collum:
We all know who out there doesn't know that they lied their asses off about the vaccine.
Jonathan Kogan:
But, and at the same time, why are things that we already know that they don't have to report on starting to come out like the Wall Street Journal talking about Jeffrey Epstein blackmailing Bill Gates over the affair? Why is that stuff coming out now?
Dave Collum:
I don't know, but does it matter?
Jonathan Kogan:
I, it makes me think that there
Dave Collum:
Put up
Jonathan Kogan:
are
Dave Collum:
the
Jonathan Kogan:
multiple
Dave Collum:
Jeffrey Epstein
Jonathan Kogan:
factions.
Dave Collum:
picture I sent you. You brought up Epstein. I said, Blym, the Lily Planet. Put up the picture of the two profiles. This is the funniest conspiracy theory in history. This is numero uno, the funniest conspiracy theory in history.
Jonathan Kogan:
This one.
Dave Collum:
First put up that one. Okay, the profile on the left is Jeffrey Epstein on the gurney, one of the two official photos of him being taken out of prison dead. Now see the circle? People focus on his ear and saying, that's not his ear, dude. That's Jeffrey Epstein on the right. But more telling is, look at the friggin' nose. That ain't the same guy. He's not even close. So you go, okay, okay, okay. Epstein's not dead, which is fine. He had so much dirt on people
Jonathan Kogan:
Maybe he's
Dave Collum:
that
Jonathan Kogan:
just
Dave Collum:
he
Jonathan Kogan:
older
Dave Collum:
had.
Jonathan Kogan:
in the left picture. He's
Dave Collum:
No,
Jonathan Kogan:
just.
Dave Collum:
no, no, no. It's a fundamental no-shape.
Jonathan Kogan:
You're
Dave Collum:
So.
Jonathan Kogan:
no slouches when you get older.
Dave Collum:
Jeffrey Epstein had so much dirt, if he didn't, he was so tied to intelligence, if he didn't have a kill switch, which is when you say, if
Jonathan Kogan:
Mm.
Dave Collum:
I die, it's all getting released. I got 20 lawyers ready to kick this shit out into the world.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, I agree.
Dave Collum:
Okay, now, now, you gotta bring up the next one that I sent
Jonathan Kogan:
Okay.
Dave Collum:
you.
Jonathan Kogan:
Give me a second.
Dave Collum:
I don't know if you can bring them up in parallel.
Jonathan Kogan:
I can't.
Dave Collum:
It doesn't matter. They can kind of remember.
Jonathan Kogan:
What is this?
Dave Collum:
wrote
Jonathan Kogan:
Hillary?
Dave Collum:
about this. Don't say it. Don't say it. Keep your audience. Keep your audience in question. So the guy here died about two weeks before Jeffrey Epstein supposedly died. And you look at him and you go, that could be the guy in the gurney. There were no statements of why he died or how he died. There's a couple articles. Nothing said. That's Hillary's brother. And I'm thinking... Some CIA guys got the funniest god damn sense of humor on the planet. What
Jonathan Kogan:
That's Hillary's
Dave Collum:
if the
Jonathan Kogan:
brother.
Dave Collum:
guy in the gurney is Hillary's brother? Oh my God,
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh,
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
my
Dave Collum:
just wet
Jonathan Kogan:
God.
Dave Collum:
myself again. I just wet myself again. That's so funny. I don't care if it's a 1% probability. I don't care if it's a 0%. That is funny. Hillary's brother.
Jonathan Kogan:
It's... I mean, every day that goes by seems more and more like a simulation. I wouldn't be surprised. But that...
Dave Collum:
were monkey brains in a belly. We're in MKUltra. We don't even know it.
Jonathan Kogan:
It sure
Dave Collum:
MKUltra,
Jonathan Kogan:
seems like it, doesn't
Dave Collum:
I thought
Jonathan Kogan:
it?
Dave Collum:
was bullshit. Here's my current theory. I presented this to a crowd of 500 people. So MKUltra is where the CIA did all sorts of mind-bending LSD experiments with various drugs, and their super goal.
Jonathan Kogan:
That's where the Unabomber came from, I believe.
Dave Collum:
That's where the Unibot of Earth came from. Their super goal. So a guy wrote about Manson. I first got into it. I'd been hearing about it by guy. Okay, so they fucked up Kaczynski pretty good. That doesn't shock me. That was a failure. Maybe not. So then I'm reading a book about Charles Manson called Chaos. And I thought I was nuts to read it, but I had several credible people say, no, you gotta read this. So I read it. And it's a guy who went to write a puff piece on the Manson murders on an anniversary. He started running into shit that didn't make sense. Over the next 20 years, he does a very credible job of connecting Charles Manson murders with CIA operatives working out of the Haight-Ashbury district
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh boy.
Dave Collum:
because of the acid
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh
Dave Collum:
stuff.
Jonathan Kogan:
boy.
Dave Collum:
And he connects him up with a guy named Jolly West, who's a MK Ultra top dog, who was well known in the Boston. wing of MK Ultra. And MK Ultra is a secret CIA operation in which we literally not only brought German Nazi rocket scientists back home, we brought the German doctors back home. That's how fucked up we are.
Jonathan Kogan:
Operation Paperclip.
Dave Collum:
Yeah, yeah. And so there he is. There's Jolly West. It's like, holy shit, that is finding the, that's the smoking gun. So where does Jolly West show up elsewhere in history? Well, he said in the book, he says, I then connected Jolly West up in a way that I had no desire whatsoever to connect him. And that is, it turns out he inserted himself into Jack Ruby's tribe.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh my
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
god.
Dave Collum:
supposedly Jack Ruby, when he first got arrested, he didn't know he had killed Oswald. So the MKUltra Holy Grail is admitted by MKUltra guys. Because there was this big above the fold scandal for about a year. And the Church Commission dug into this big, which is why I was just clueless, not realizing it was very real and very bad. There's a book called Poisoner in Chief, which goes into it. In any event, Jolly Wes inserts himself into Timothy McVeigh's truck. Jolly West is found in a lot of places that Jolly West should not be. Now, Timothy McVeigh, I just watched the documentary. You're done with it. You're going, holy shit. This was a Psyop.
Jonathan Kogan:
whole thing.
Dave Collum:
Timothy McVeigh. Yeah. And so I stood up in front of an audience. I was asked at a finance investment conference to be on a panel discussion with Teminus Novus, they said, give me a conspiracy theory. Give the crowd a conspiracy theory without defending it. Let them ask questions. So one guy said they're rigging the price of gold. Oh yeah, we don't know that. Someone else made some other statements and I said, I start out by saying little gremlins come out of my phone at night, molest me. That actually was kind of stolen from a book about the guy who helped build the Oxford dictionary who was bat shit crazy. And then I said, no, no, no, liberals have taken over academia. I go, no, that's so good either. And then I go up and then I go. Many, if not most of the mass shootings are state sponsored.
Jonathan Kogan:
I worry about
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
that.
Dave Collum:
that got the audience and they started pampering me. I think the data is actually pretty good.
Jonathan Kogan:
And I worry it's going to increase because
Dave Collum:
And so then
Jonathan Kogan:
now,
Dave Collum:
here's what happened.
Jonathan Kogan:
yeah, they won't take the guns.
Dave Collum:
So here's what happened in the church commission. They laid out MKLTRA, which was super top secret. Supposedly when you walked across Fort Detrick, which became Camp Detrick, was Camp Detrick became Fort, I can't remember, went one way or the other. But in any event, apparently when you walked across the country, you hear guys screaming. They put a guy on
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh my
Dave Collum:
acid
Jonathan Kogan:
god.
Dave Collum:
24 seven for six months. What does that do to the human mind, right? So their holy grail was to create an assassin. who would do anything they were told to do and not even know why they did it or even that they did it.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh my
Dave Collum:
Now,
Jonathan Kogan:
god.
Dave Collum:
when the church commission was done, they said, well, we never succeeded and we've closed it up. And I go, what if they're lying 0 for 2 on that one? What if it did work? What if Ted Kaczynski was not a failure of MKUltra, but rather the experiment playing out? What if Ted was doing what he was told to do? What if, you know, those two guys at the Boston Marathon bomb? There's a lot of weird shit there. You know what the weirdest shit there? There's an interview right after the Boston Marathon bombing, right on the scene of a famous Harvard medical school professor about the bombing named Lena Wynn. Oh, that's funny. Wasn't she the spokesperson for the COVID vaccine?
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, CNN. She's the, isn't that, I was just
Dave Collum:
Yeah,
Jonathan Kogan:
going to say, isn't
Dave Collum:
yeah.
Jonathan Kogan:
she the doctor? She's
Dave Collum:
And so
Jonathan Kogan:
loved
Dave Collum:
here's,
Jonathan Kogan:
masking.
Dave Collum:
so here's what I did. I dug into Lena. Lena has family that has ties back to China,
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh God.
Dave Collum:
but she's Chinese descent, so you go, okay.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, she is, yeah.
Dave Collum:
But then I went and I actually dug up her resume and being in academia, I could actually look up her papers. Lena Wen had a resume filled with papers that in my opinion, even though I'm not a doc, were just garbage. They were in elite journals, they were just garbage. Just like the layout of the ER room in some hospital. Talking about it. I'm going, this is what Harvard professors do now? And the message was they created a resume for Lena.
Jonathan Kogan:
Wait, wait, you really? Is that what you think's true? Because she was a part
Dave Collum:
Yeah,
Jonathan Kogan:
of the whole.
Dave Collum:
her resume is a bunch of papers in elite medical journals in which the content of the articles is sub-minimum standard.
Jonathan Kogan:
So they've basically
Dave Collum:
Harvard
Jonathan Kogan:
infiltrated
Dave Collum:
doesn't hire idiots normally.
Jonathan Kogan:
every part of society. Well I mean now it doesn't, I mean Jeffrey Epstein had ties to Harvard, I mean MIT, all of it.
Dave Collum:
Oh, massive.
Jonathan Kogan:
All of it.
Dave Collum:
Yes. Harvard, I think, was the center of intelligence operations. So I think the entire Harvard psychology department was funded by the CIA.
Jonathan Kogan:
Is everyone who lied the past three years a part of the system? Is that what's going on here? And they just have like half
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
the population from it.
Dave Collum:
let me bounce a name off you. Let me bounce a funniest name off you. One of the guys involved in MKUltra, the guy running the whole thing. You're gonna love this name. And I've tried to make the connection and I haven't been able to. His name is Cindy Gottlieb. Where's that name? Gottlieb, why is that a familiar
Jonathan Kogan:
Adieu.
Dave Collum:
name? Oh, right, he's the Pfizer slash FDA guy. No, Pfizer
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh, yeah.
Dave Collum:
FDA spokesperson for the vaccine. Is that his grandson?
Jonathan Kogan:
What?
Dave Collum:
I don't know,
Jonathan Kogan:
Okay.
Dave Collum:
I haven't been able to make the connection.
Jonathan Kogan:
Have you ever read the book?
Dave Collum:
Common
Jonathan Kogan:
Uh,
Dave Collum:
name, so his name
Jonathan Kogan:
the,
Dave Collum:
is Smith.
Jonathan Kogan:
there's a book Titan about the Rockefellers or about John D Rockefeller in particular and John D Rockefeller
Dave Collum:
Yeah, he's a
Jonathan Kogan:
in,
Dave Collum:
sweetheart.
Jonathan Kogan:
in the early 19 hundreds, uh, basically had a monopoly that got, you know, Teddy Roosevelt, uh, you know, knocked it apart. And he wanted to get into, uh, basically, basically what he did was he took over medical schools and science and got really into vaccines and stuff like that. And there's a paper. Well, there's two parts of the story. There's a paper by, uh, was it his? Okay. When he got into this, this, he wanted to like take over medical schools, get into vaccines, all this stuff, science, right? And the guy he put in charge of it, his last name, and I've looked up the connection online as he related to the guy who you think I'm going to say his last name is Gates, it's Frederick T Gates. Okay. Is his name. He was the guy that was Rockefeller's appointee that created this huge philanthropic. foundation that is exactly mirrored to the Bill and Melinda
Dave Collum:
Is that his
Jonathan Kogan:
Gates.
Dave Collum:
father? Is that his father? Is that
Jonathan Kogan:
Well,
Dave Collum:
Bill's
Jonathan Kogan:
if you
Dave Collum:
father?
Jonathan Kogan:
look up as Bill Gates related to Frederick T. Gates,
Dave Collum:
Bill seniors, Bill Gates
Jonathan Kogan:
they'll
Dave Collum:
senior.
Jonathan Kogan:
say no. But so you look up Bill Williams, senior or Bill's, you know, who was the head of Planned Parenthood, by the way, and is he related to Frederick T. Gates? And then you have to like look to see if there's a, so there seems to be, there's a guy named Frederick T. Gates who was tied to Rockefeller who created. exactly what the Bill and Linda Gates Foundation is, even to a bigger degree, took over, got medicine out, alternative medicine that we think of now used to be taught in medical school. Now it's all big pharma.
Dave Collum:
So the two biggest medical foundations are created by you, the Gates. Ha ha
Jonathan Kogan:
It j what are
Dave Collum:
ha.
Jonathan Kogan:
the chances of that? That's impossible. But if you look at online,
Dave Collum:
You gotta
Jonathan Kogan:
PolitiFact,
Dave Collum:
laugh.
Jonathan Kogan:
PolitiFact will say they're not related, but come
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
to the
Dave Collum:
that's
Jonathan Kogan:
exact
Dave Collum:
worth,
Jonathan Kogan:
same thing.
Dave Collum:
by the way, general rule of thumb, first of all, the plot of facts are lying nonstop. When they get one that's easy and they're correct, that's fine, but they will lie. They're paid to lie. Snopes is paid to lie. Snopes is putting out so much content, you go, that's not a husband wife team right there. So my general rule of thumb is the more fact checking you find, the more likely the story is true.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, here's the other one. In 1918, what happened? There was a Spanish flu. There was a pandemic.
Dave Collum:
Right. Right.
Jonathan Kogan:
Guess who wrote, there was at the, not for Dietrich, but at a military base, there was a doctor who wrote a white paper on this, that is on the NIH website, I can send it to you afterwards, about how they're going to inject people with these, I don't know if they called it vaccines or something. to create this like new influenza, see how it spreads and all this stuff. And that's what they believe.
Dave Collum:
I haven't heard this story at all. I haven't heard this
Jonathan Kogan:
And
Dave Collum:
story
Jonathan Kogan:
there's
Dave Collum:
at all.
Jonathan Kogan:
the white paper still on the NIH website, which I have saved, I could pull it up.
Dave Collum:
If you could send it to me, that would be great.
Jonathan Kogan:
And the author of this paper is Frederick T. Gates's son, who's a doctor, who... I mean
Dave Collum:
So Bill Gates, Bill
Jonathan Kogan:
who
Dave Collum:
Gates Sr. was a eugenicist supposedly. That supposedly
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
is public record.
Jonathan Kogan:
But this might all, but the pandemic of 1918 might've also have been started by a Gates and potentially was intentional. Basically the same thing that just happened.
Dave Collum:
Where's that? Kansas, Missouri, one of those two states. I can't remember which one. A great book, by the way, is The Great Influenza by Steve Barry. Here's
Jonathan Kogan:
great
Dave Collum:
the funny thing. So I read Barry's book in 05. I find a post it with 2000. His the name is book in 05 written that said bye or something. And it's a great book. It talks about germ theory, medicine's really very informative. And I think it's an audio. I think it's an audio book if you do those. In his book, he talks about how masks don't do anything and all the stuff that we've learned. I knew that when the pandemic started. I said there's 30 clinical trials on flu. These masks do nothing. Why are they making his mask up? That sort of thing. If you really want to know that they didn't care about masks, all you have to do is recognize that for a year and a half, they didn't care what mask. If they cared about health, it would have said, oh, by the way, Mr. Bandana, that's not going to work. But they didn't care. They just cared
Jonathan Kogan:
Everything
Dave Collum:
that
Jonathan Kogan:
was
Dave Collum:
you
Jonathan Kogan:
the exact
Dave Collum:
complied.
Jonathan Kogan:
opposite.
Dave Collum:
It was not about It was efficacy, it was not efficacy, it was compliance. Frederick
Jonathan Kogan:
No,
Dave Collum:
Taylor
Jonathan Kogan:
they cared.
Dave Collum:
guy, send
Jonathan Kogan:
They
Dave Collum:
this,
Jonathan Kogan:
cared
Dave Collum:
send
Jonathan Kogan:
to tell
Dave Collum:
that
Jonathan Kogan:
you
Dave Collum:
to
Jonathan Kogan:
the
Dave Collum:
me.
Jonathan Kogan:
exact opposite. The exact
Dave Collum:
Yeah, I know,
Jonathan Kogan:
the exact
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
opposite.
Dave Collum:
know.
Jonathan Kogan:
But Frederick
Dave Collum:
That's, that's
Jonathan Kogan:
Frederick T. Gates played an essential. It's all it's unbelievable. It's I'll send it to you afterwards, but it's all in the book Titan. And when they said that his head, who the richest man in the world wanted to take over science and the guy he appointed last name was Gates. I'm a shit myself. And I just did all this research and they make it very they put enough propaganda to make sure that anything you find says Frederick T. Gates absolutely doesn't have any connection, which means they know you're searching for it.
Dave Collum:
You should reach out to Whitney Webb and ask her what she knows because she's encyclopedic. And she's
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, she's
Dave Collum:
also,
Jonathan Kogan:
good.
Dave Collum:
you know some people criticize her for missing the big picture and I go, you guys are missing the point. She's one of the great jigsaw puzzler assemblers of all time. She puts the pieces together. The picture will emerge if people are putting the pieces together. She puts the pieces together. She's phenomenal.
Jonathan Kogan:
Her book is great. Yeah,
Dave Collum:
I'm in the
Jonathan Kogan:
her
Dave Collum:
middle
Jonathan Kogan:
book is great.
Dave Collum:
of it. I'm at the start of it right now.
Jonathan Kogan:
I do audiobooks, so I listen to the first one. The second
Dave Collum:
Wow.
Jonathan Kogan:
one's not out yet, so I haven't
Dave Collum:
Yeah,
Jonathan Kogan:
listened
Dave Collum:
I know.
Jonathan Kogan:
to it.
Dave Collum:
I waited for the first. I'm
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
not reading that book because Whitney, Whitney digs into the details. I said it's got to be audio. It's got to be audio because I.
Jonathan Kogan:
They're all connected. The Pritzker family, everybody in power is connected in some way to the corruption
Dave Collum:
The Bronfmans,
Jonathan Kogan:
that has happened.
Dave Collum:
the, oh I know, it's just
Jonathan Kogan:
All
Dave Collum:
a
Jonathan Kogan:
of them.
Dave Collum:
truly, you seen that
Jonathan Kogan:
It's every
Dave Collum:
picture
Jonathan Kogan:
family.
Dave Collum:
of the famous thugs with Fauci in it with the Bronfmans and the CEO, various news agency, Ailes and all these guys in one picture.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yep.
Dave Collum:
It's just, it's amazing.
Jonathan Kogan:
And what about the same people behind Jeffrey Epstein are behind who? Jamie Dimon, the most powerful central banker in the world.
Dave Collum:
So here's the mystery. So Whitney, I watched her on a podcast the other day. She said, you're dreaming. If you think that you're going to elect someone that's going to solve this problem. You're dreaming.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, she's right. This is so much
Dave Collum:
She
Jonathan Kogan:
deeper.
Dave Collum:
says it's got to come from us or it's got to come from within. So at the
Jonathan Kogan:
A
Dave Collum:
end
Jonathan Kogan:
revolution.
Dave Collum:
of podcasts, people often say, what's your message? What's your message? Well, revolution is usually unapportably. Right. Name a revolution, with the exception of the US
Jonathan Kogan:
American?
Dave Collum:
American Revolution. Yeah, right. But with
Jonathan Kogan:
French?
Dave Collum:
the exception of that one, they usually go, yeah, long run, historians will always say that it was an important step, but the bloodbath, you know, that Edmund Burke warned, you know, be careful, this thing's gonna get murderous, and he was dead right about the French Revolution. So, the idea of a revolution, if you somehow think that you're not gonna tip over the entire game board. and really cause pain and suffering and starvation. And that somehow there will be benefactors. You will be dead when they're benefiting. There will be people who are benefiting, but you will be dead when they're benefiting.
Jonathan Kogan:
So it's interesting. I was listening yesterday. There's a book, the creature from Jekyll Island about the Fett.
Dave Collum:
I read it. Yeah, that
Jonathan Kogan:
Unbelievable.
Dave Collum:
one I had to read. Yeah,
Jonathan Kogan:
So he was
Dave Collum:
it's
Jonathan Kogan:
on. Yeah.
Dave Collum:
on its 800th edition. I'm still
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
windy. I just gotta go get more coffee.
Jonathan Kogan:
He was on a Danielle Kim Boney.
Dave Collum:
Yep, I saw it. I didn't watch it, but I saw it.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, he was, there was two parts and yesterday was the other one. And he said something interesting because I keep wondering like when are people going to wake up? How do people not see this? And I know so many people who don't. And he says. that the major revolutions that have happened in the past is that there's 1% of the people that spoke out and saw it and became active. And then they got a 2% of the people that started influencing as taking action. And then that ultimately led to only up to maximum of 15%. Basically every revolution that's ever happened was 15% of the people, but it all started with 1%. It really starts. It was
Dave Collum:
Right. It's
Jonathan Kogan:
1%!
Dave Collum:
a Malcolm Gladwell. Those are the routers or something. I can't remember what he calls them. But, um. So we talked about The True Believer. What a phenomenal book, right? What a phenomenal book The True Believer was. And it's short, and if you haven't read it, those listening, you should read it because it just explains how the ideas take hold. And then in Matthias Desmond's book, The Psychology of Totalitarianism, he talks. The take home lesson for me was that it's not evil guys at the top who take over. It's ideology that takes over. And
Jonathan Kogan:
And
Dave Collum:
the
Jonathan Kogan:
it's like
Dave Collum:
ideology
Jonathan Kogan:
self-reinforcing.
Dave Collum:
takes over the masses, and they sign off on shit that they wouldn't have signed off on. And it takes over the guys at the top, and they delude themselves into thinking they're doing good. And somehow, so it's this gigantic mass delusion. And it's my Dr. Zoom group that's had all these anti-COVID, the anti-vaccine doctors go through, including Kennedy and guys like that. There's an NSA guy there. He's on Twitter. I don't want to mention him by name because I don't know how much he wants to be public. And we're talking about them. I'll call him Stephen. I said, Stephen, who's the them? I'm still groping on this particular discussion we're having. Who's the them? He said, I don't like, this guy was filled with wisdom. He said, I don't like to name names because if I name a name, well, it's hypothetically, Bill Gates, you get to say, well, now we understand. He's the problem, what's for dinner, right? And it gets you to stop thinking. And so he said, I like to think of it as a self-assembling oligarchy, which there's always people of interest that are aligned. And they don't know each other or they know each other through a neural network, but not, you know, it's not one big club sitting around a table deciding what to do next. But they're all benefiting and they all know that they're at the top of the pyramid. They don't know who's at the tippy top. They, you know. Gates is not the top of the pyramid.
Jonathan Kogan:
No.
Dave Collum:
I'm confident of that. As someone said once, the guys really running the world may not have Wikipedia pages.
Jonathan Kogan:
You'll never
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
know.
Dave Collum:
you'll never know.
Jonathan Kogan:
by design.
Dave Collum:
And this has always been true, except for the fact even in ancient Rome, right? They knocked off 50 emperors in 50 years, right? Those guys obviously weren't kings of the world. And so this has always been this way. The risk is that those of us in the United States for the last 250 years have had it pretty good.
Jonathan Kogan:
best.
Dave Collum:
And the risk is that we lose that. And we are teaching kids ideas that really are throwing out. what de Tocqueville loved about America in the 18th century. And Europe was watching us very carefully going, oh my God, these Americans, they are really doing some weird stuff. This is not the world we pictured. And they couldn't believe that Washington actually took power for eight years and then gave it back. Stuff like that. Didn't pass it to a son, whatever. Now we do again, right? Pass it through the Clintons and the Bushes. And so we're back there.
Jonathan Kogan:
It's unbelievable.
Dave Collum:
The state of California is really bad at that, I'm
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh yeah.
Dave Collum:
told.
Jonathan Kogan:
one-party state.
Dave Collum:
So. So then the question is, my brother and I talk about this all the time, should we just stop watching? At the end of podcasts, I was about to say, people say, well, what's your message? What is your message? I've taken to say, speak up. Speak up. And I understand why people don't speak up in certain settings, but whenever you can, speak up. And my wife, I got canceled once. And it was, it was for no good reason. And they were actually gunning for me because I beat a labor union twice. And, but I got my ass kicked pretty good. It was during the George Floyd riots. I don't know if people are gonna show up at my house. I slept with a shotgun and they tried to get me fired and everything else under the sun. So I do know what it's like to be under the gun. But my wife was upset about it. I said, Candace, what I tweeted that got me canceled was totally innocuous. There was actually nothing offensive in it. Somehow that tweet got started the avalanche. And I don't know why. Because I tweet shit that shouldn't be tweeted. That was not one of them.
Jonathan Kogan:
that you do.
Dave Collum:
And I said, but if a tenured professor who could retire any day he wanted at this point. And I do know how to do the math on retirement. So I'm not, I could retire any day I wanted. Who had, if you saw my resume, it's not that I'm a superstar, but I have ties to Cornell that are so goddamn strong that it would be horrifying for them to try to fire me. And beyond just, you know, old tenured guy. And... I said, if I can't speak up, who can? And a recent articulation of that idea came from Badacharyath, Stanford Badacharyath. What's his first name? Badacharyath.
Jonathan Kogan:
Jay had
Dave Collum:
What's
Jonathan Kogan:
him on
Dave Collum:
his
Jonathan Kogan:
the
Dave Collum:
first
Jonathan Kogan:
podcast.
Dave Collum:
name? Jay
Jonathan Kogan:
He's great.
Dave Collum:
Badacharyath. Jay Badacharyath. He's the most humble guy. He's the sweetheart. But he had this, he was deep, deep, deep dark because he was fighting a real global battle.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh yeah.
Dave Collum:
And I'm sure he said it to you. He said he realized that what good is his career if he doesn't do something important And that's essentially the same argument.
Jonathan Kogan:
This was the true
Dave Collum:
Cheers.
Jonathan Kogan:
test, I feel like. And you mentioned Matthias Desmet. He said the only way you prevent something like Germany and this mass formation, psychosis, all this stuff is to speak out. That's the one thing they didn't do. And if you have to continue speaking out, that's how you could put a stop to this craziness.
Dave Collum:
Well, that's the famous Niemöller quote, too, about how they came for the Jews, and I didn't say anything because I wasn't a Jew, and then they came for this, and then at the end, they came for me, and there was no one left to protect me. And
Jonathan Kogan:
And that's what always happens.
Dave Collum:
that's what always happens. And they cancel culture, by the way, was not some cockeyed idea invented by stupid youth. That was astroturf from head to toe.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh yeah, 100%
Dave Collum:
That
Jonathan Kogan:
from
Dave Collum:
was
Jonathan Kogan:
0809.
Dave Collum:
created by a system. That was created by a system. to shut down free speech. So now when you go to say something, even though cancel culture seems to have gone sort of out of favor, you're going, well, what if they come at? And I've always...
Jonathan Kogan:
There's a picture on Twitter I just saw today that explains exactly what you just said, which is it showed 2008, 2009, or maybe a little bit after, people protesting, you know, don't bail out Wall Street, give the money to the people, like the protests against Wall Street. And then it showed a picture in 2018 of this Pride Parade and the truck that they were, the platform they were standing on, sponsored by JP Morgan. Ha
Dave Collum:
And that
Jonathan Kogan:
ha ha.
Dave Collum:
gets back to this idea of corporate. So I finished the Vek Ramaswami's book, Woke Incorporated. He is saying all the right things, but there's something too perfect about him.
Jonathan Kogan:
What do you mean?
Dave Collum:
He looks to me like he's politics analog of a boy band as to music. He looks like he was created to run.
Jonathan Kogan:
Really?
Dave Collum:
There's something, yeah.
Jonathan Kogan:
He's very articulate, very smart, but it doesn't seem like he's a controlled opposition type person to me, personally.
Dave Collum:
Well, he's saying all the right things for the right, while at the same time potentially getting the whole MAGA story to burn down. So there's just something about him that makes me nervous. He came out of nowhere.
Jonathan Kogan:
He's a biotech guy.
Dave Collum:
It's not like he came out of an orphanage, but Whitney said these guys emerged from. From nowhere, all of a sudden they kind of have these leadership. You know, Kristiia Freeland, former Ukrainian Nazi. Now she's second in command of Canada and in line to become the secretary general of NATO.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yep, that's right.
Dave Collum:
Whoa, Kristi, that's pretty good for a granddaughter of a Nazi who also ran around Ukraine doing propaganda, right beside Nina Jankiewicz, who also ran around Ukraine doing propaganda.
Jonathan Kogan:
who's also suing Fox News right now.
Dave Collum:
Right. So now, and that woman has sued Trump for something. I've never quite figured out what it was. They found he was not guilty, but sued him for defamation, declaring he was not guilty and she was the liar.
Jonathan Kogan:
E.J. Carroll or whatever, E.G.
Dave Collum:
Yeah,
Jonathan Kogan:
Carroll.
Dave Collum:
yeah, yeah. I still haven't figured out what she proved. and
Jonathan Kogan:
that she was sexually assaulted.
Dave Collum:
Well, they didn't prove that.
Jonathan Kogan:
They didn't prove rape. That's what they didn't prove.
Dave Collum:
Now you can't... DAD?
Jonathan Kogan:
Sexually abused or something.
Dave Collum:
Well, in a court of law, did he get convicted in a court of law?
Jonathan Kogan:
Well,
Dave Collum:
No.
Jonathan Kogan:
no, you're not guilty. It wasn't a it wasn't civil or it was civil. Which one it was.
Dave Collum:
It
Jonathan Kogan:
It
Dave Collum:
was
Jonathan Kogan:
was
Dave Collum:
civil.
Jonathan Kogan:
it was not it was not the court where you're
Dave Collum:
It was
Jonathan Kogan:
guilty.
Dave Collum:
in the civil case.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah. So you're just you're not guilty. It's not innocent or guilty. Just you got to pay the defamation a million dollars or something like that. And now she's going
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
to sue him
Dave Collum:
so...
Jonathan Kogan:
again for CNN for what he said on CNN
Dave Collum:
I know.
Jonathan Kogan:
about her.
Dave Collum:
Yeah, I know. I know. I
Jonathan Kogan:
It
Dave Collum:
know.
Jonathan Kogan:
seems fishy.
Dave Collum:
She's a
Jonathan Kogan:
I'm
Dave Collum:
grift.
Jonathan Kogan:
not going to lie.
Dave Collum:
Well, she's gonna get paid. She's gonna
Jonathan Kogan:
Well,
Dave Collum:
get
Jonathan Kogan:
she's
Dave Collum:
her grift.
Jonathan Kogan:
backed by Reid Hoffman, who's a mega donor behind the Democrats. I mean, he's an interesting character. He's bankrolling
Dave Collum:
What was their
Jonathan Kogan:
it.
Dave Collum:
name? Blasio Ford who went after Kavanaugh? You know, that was
Jonathan Kogan:
Mm-hmm.
Dave Collum:
a total farce. I don't see how you believe anybody about anything now.
Jonathan Kogan:
That's a problem.
Dave Collum:
And with the deep fakes and stuff, I don't even see how you believe what you're seeing with your own lying eyes.
Jonathan Kogan:
So then what do you think about just two days ago? And because this came out, I did a podcast last March about the WEF ran a cyber attack simulation. They love simulations. They wrote a cyber attack simulation that shuts down like the internet, all this stuff. And then at the WEF, at one of their panels, they read 89% of experts predict a catastrophic cyber attack in the next two years, which is incredibly profound. And then yesterday or two days ago, Uh, 50 or maybe a hundred senators were given satellite phones in case there's a quote, disturbing, disturbing event or disturbance event. Do you think something else? And then you have also in the EU, them asking to test this new pandemic treaty that should be solidified next year by the WHO where people give away their sovereignty, we need to test that out before next year is something else on the horizon. Are they going to keep going? Is there an end game here?
Dave Collum:
I think a lot of that's white noise when bad guys are about to do bad things. I'm not sure they tell you I Get
Jonathan Kogan:
I think
Dave Collum:
the
Jonathan Kogan:
they
Dave Collum:
feeling
Jonathan Kogan:
do though,
Dave Collum:
that
Jonathan Kogan:
that's the thing.
Dave Collum:
I think well that could be the garishness
Jonathan Kogan:
It's
Dave Collum:
But
Jonathan Kogan:
like
Dave Collum:
what
Jonathan Kogan:
they
Dave Collum:
if
Jonathan Kogan:
have
Dave Collum:
the
Jonathan Kogan:
to tell
Dave Collum:
W
Jonathan Kogan:
you.
Dave Collum:
what the W says you're gonna eat bugs you're not gonna own anything You're gonna be happy they they they make all these preposterous statements that if they run it past the focus group say well You know they're not gonna be that happy about that shit. You know you're saying And you got Yuval Harari up there saying shit that obviously is indigestible. By the way,
Jonathan Kogan:
humans
Dave Collum:
his books
Jonathan Kogan:
are
Dave Collum:
suck.
Jonathan Kogan:
hackable
Dave Collum:
Let's
Jonathan Kogan:
animals.
Dave Collum:
get, let's get down to it. You can, I read Homewood Dayes. I read Sapiens. They weren't that good. I love that kind of shit. They weren't that good.
Jonathan Kogan:
The
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
elites
Dave Collum:
found them
Jonathan Kogan:
love
Dave Collum:
to be.
Jonathan Kogan:
it.
Dave Collum:
Oh yeah. Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
Best
Dave Collum:
no,
Jonathan Kogan:
book
Dave Collum:
but
Jonathan Kogan:
ever.
Dave Collum:
the, I, I tried, I know I tried to, uh, tried to get my way through one of Klaus Schwab's books and was farcically bad. And so then the question is, is Klaus, Klaus is just a friend.
Jonathan Kogan:
course.
Dave Collum:
I don't know who's doing it, but I imagine if we're at onion layer 5, they're at onion layer 57.
Jonathan Kogan:
I mean, who runs the world, who runs the bank? I think it comes back to a few families. There's these cycles of 500 years. Every 500 years, the global monetary system is usually owned by a family or a group of families, and it switches every 500 years. The Italian family was 500 years ago, then it became
Dave Collum:
Yeah,
Jonathan Kogan:
the
Dave Collum:
the
Jonathan Kogan:
Rothschilds.
Dave Collum:
Medici's.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, and then the Rothschilds, and now it's mixed with the Rockefellers and some other. Well, that 500-year deadline is right now. So is it?
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
Is
Dave Collum:
so
Jonathan Kogan:
it,
Dave Collum:
the
Jonathan Kogan:
is
Dave Collum:
question
Jonathan Kogan:
it?
Dave Collum:
is, does the old money really dissipate? I read Neil Ferguson's book on the Rothschilds.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
As soon as you mention the Rothschilds, you get called anti-Semitic. Look, they ran a banking dynasty. We got to be able to talk about them.
Jonathan Kogan:
I mean,
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
I'm
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
Jewish.
Dave Collum:
don't give
Jonathan Kogan:
It's
Dave Collum:
a
Jonathan Kogan:
crazy.
Dave Collum:
shit.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah.
Dave Collum:
Yeah. I don't give a shit what church you went to. I don't give a shit what your genetics are. What I can tell you is if there's a group that's the smartest group in the world, it's the Jews. So I take my hat off to you guys for being brilliant on average,
Jonathan Kogan:
Well,
Dave Collum:
statistically.
Jonathan Kogan:
someone's gotta own everything.
Dave Collum:
Yeah, right. And so then the question is, Ferguson's book describes a Rothschild dynasty that dissipated. I said that to Del and Paul, and he said, oh, no, it didn't. And then he started dragging me down. The Jews are doing it story. No, no, no, no, no. T. O. You're not dragging me into this storyline
Jonathan Kogan:
The Bank of England,
Dave Collum:
at all.
Jonathan Kogan:
the Bank of England is a Rothschild Bank.
Dave Collum:
But I don't know what that even means. The Rothschild is now a financial entity. I think at one point the Rothschilds were a bunch of Jewish guys hanging around doing banking.
Jonathan Kogan:
I think
Dave Collum:
But
Jonathan Kogan:
that they
Dave Collum:
I don't.
Jonathan Kogan:
have, I think they're the central banks of the West.
Dave Collum:
Yeah, yeah, but I don't know Rothschild is just a name. I don't know what it actually is
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh, like Lord Rostral. That's, that's the oldest
Dave Collum:
I don't
Jonathan Kogan:
one.
Dave Collum:
know. Are there Rothschilds sitting around talking about their great great great grandfather or is it dissipated? Is it JP Morgan? I don't know. So what if the Medici money didn't dissipate? What if that's still there? So one time I'm talking to an anti-vaxxer. I won't name him, but this will tell some people who he is. He's probably the expert on the organ damaging effects of remdesivir, a five-teas favorite drug. I spoke to him for a long time, and he finally said to me, it's amazing how you have a long conversation and say shit and you forget you're talking. And he said, you want to know who I think China is really a battle with? I go, yeah, sure. He said the Catholic Church. And he didn't explain it to me, but I started thinking about it. OK, so the Catholic Church has been around for 2000 years. That's a lot of compounding. If you look outside the window of this building, you can see several Catholic churches. They've got diocese all over the planet. They've accrued vast, vast wealth in terms of, you know, priceless paintings and you
Jonathan Kogan:
And they have like a secret fund as well.
Dave Collum:
And then the question is, could the Catholic Church? The financial entity, not the religion, own 30% of the world, sure.
Jonathan Kogan:
I think they're very, I think they're powerful. I don't think they're the most powerful, but they're the Vatican's up there for sure. Oh yeah.
Dave Collum:
Well, the Vatican may be sort of an understatement because it makes this little post that Sam Sey sing seem important. But if they own 30% of the world, who's ever calling the shots from in there is a player.
Jonathan Kogan:
And you.
Dave Collum:
And I can't rule it out. I can't rule it out.
Jonathan Kogan:
And you know, who's a player based on how they reacted the last three years. And if they really wanted you to get injected, they really wanted you to lot. Like, like when people say, oh, you know, if Jesus was here, Jesus, you know, would love Pfizer, you know, like people that come out and say
Dave Collum:
Did
Jonathan Kogan:
that
Dave Collum:
you
Jonathan Kogan:
stuff.
Dave Collum:
see that Ophelia's compilation? Did you see that one? I'm like,
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah,
Dave Collum:
what's his
Jonathan Kogan:
yeah,
Dave Collum:
name?
Jonathan Kogan:
it got, uh, it got demonetized and it was all, it was all reported. It was all clips from mainstream media saying you're not safe until
Dave Collum:
It
Jonathan Kogan:
everybody's
Dave Collum:
was
Jonathan Kogan:
safe.
Dave Collum:
brilliant.
Jonathan Kogan:
Compilation
Dave Collum:
It was.
Jonathan Kogan:
does great stuff and it got
Dave Collum:
Brilliant.
Jonathan Kogan:
censored. It got censored.
Dave Collum:
Well, it's out there and it's not going away because everyone saved it.
Jonathan Kogan:
But it was just clips of CNN, MSNBC, even Fox, all of them.
Dave Collum:
but it showed the vileness
Jonathan Kogan:
It's unbelievable.
Dave Collum:
of the vaccine COVID campaign. It was absolutely, I think one of the times I posted it, I said, take your pulse, watch this video, and then take
Jonathan Kogan:
Mute
Dave Collum:
your
Jonathan Kogan:
that.
Dave Collum:
pulse again.
Jonathan Kogan:
Can you mute that?
Dave Collum:
Oh, sorry, it's my brother. It was phenomenal, phenomenally
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh yeah.
Dave Collum:
well done because you wanted to you. You were just seething with hatred at the end of the goddamn thing because it showed all the very prominent people talking about how you're lower than Ponsk, I'm in a vile person and deserve to die for not taking the vaccine and how the vaccine was guaranteed to help everything. And then they It just ate the whole story up
Jonathan Kogan:
Even
Dave Collum:
and it just
Jonathan Kogan:
Noam
Dave Collum:
showed.
Jonathan Kogan:
Chomsky said it, said the unvaccinated should, you know, have to go find their own food.
Dave Collum:
And Arnold Schwarzenegger said, fuck your freedoms. I remember when he did that. I
Jonathan Kogan:
Screw
Dave Collum:
quoted
Jonathan Kogan:
your
Dave Collum:
him
Jonathan Kogan:
freedom.
Dave Collum:
in one of my write-ups. Screw your freedoms. I quoted him in one of my write-ups. I find that to be truly appalling that he could formulate that sentence. Screw your freedoms.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well, he has ties to Nazis as well. His father was a literal Nazi, wasn't he?
Dave Collum:
Well, I don't know, but he's Austrian, so I don't know.
Jonathan Kogan:
I mean, I just don't understand how people can trust any of these people ever again when they say anything. It seems like people are going on trusting them on certain issues. It's just like it never happened. It's unbelievable.
Dave Collum:
I know. It's called the Gelman amnesia effect. I posted a tweet on it this morning. It's the effect where you watch some station like CNN. And you know, that's bullshit. That's bullshit. That's what you realize. They're just full of crap. They don't know what they're talking about. And then all of a sudden they come out and they tell you something you like and you completely forget that they're not trustworthy.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh my
Dave Collum:
Yes.
Jonathan Kogan:
god!
Dave Collum:
And you suck it right down.
Jonathan Kogan:
What percent
Dave Collum:
So
Jonathan Kogan:
of the population
Dave Collum:
I post
Jonathan Kogan:
is like
Dave Collum:
one,
Jonathan Kogan:
that?
Dave Collum:
I think this morning, I said they lied about the laptop, and about they've lied us into every war, and I listed a whole bunch of the COVID vaccine, you name it, I said. But I'm sure they didn't lie about the $150 trillion climate story.
Jonathan Kogan:
I was going to say the one thing that hasn't proven to be a lie, out of all these things that I've observed over the past few years, there's one thing that hasn't proven to be a lie and it makes me skeptical of it since everything else was a lie, which was the 2020 election. That was the only thing. So everything-
Dave Collum:
I think it was a lie. No, I think it was a lie.
Jonathan Kogan:
So everything's been a lie except that. That's the only thing that hasn't been proven. It makes me just skeptical
Dave Collum:
Well, but
Jonathan Kogan:
when
Dave Collum:
they've
Jonathan Kogan:
100%
Dave Collum:
made
Jonathan Kogan:
of
Dave Collum:
it. How
Jonathan Kogan:
everything
Dave Collum:
do
Jonathan Kogan:
else.
Dave Collum:
you how do you prove it? How do you prove it?
Jonathan Kogan:
I don't know. It's
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
the only
Dave Collum:
Jonathan Kogan:
thing though.
Dave Collum:
cases got taken to court. 61 cases were stopped short of evidentiary status. The case has never been looked at. By the way, here's my argument for why the 2020 election was rigged. And when I say rigged, I don't mean biased. I get that. And
Jonathan Kogan:
Well,
Dave Collum:
it was
Jonathan Kogan:
that's
Dave Collum:
biased
Jonathan Kogan:
true.
Dave Collum:
at a profound level, right?
Jonathan Kogan:
The laptop was Russian disinformation. That was a lie.
Dave Collum:
Right, right,
Jonathan Kogan:
That
Dave Collum:
no,
Jonathan Kogan:
was
Dave Collum:
no.
Jonathan Kogan:
meddling.
Dave Collum:
So I was biased, but that's not rigging an election. That is being authoritarian, but it's not rigging an election.
Jonathan Kogan:
That's not election
Dave Collum:
Rigging
Jonathan Kogan:
interference.
Dave Collum:
an election is... It's interference, but to me, rigging ultimately comes down to the vote count
Jonathan Kogan:
OK.
Dave Collum:
was not what we were told.
Jonathan Kogan:
OK, so that's ballots.
Dave Collum:
And the people's votes were not, and there's always around the fringe rigging. There's always, it's always there. There's always mistakes, there's always crap. Here's how I know they rigged the election. I can give you specific things that trouble me, but how I know. Look at what they did to keep Trump out of office. Everything imaginable. Everything imaginable. Is there any chance that these guys said, oh, but we can't rig the election? Would you bet anything on that?
Jonathan Kogan:
since
Dave Collum:
No.
Jonathan Kogan:
literally everything has been a lie except that, I'm obviously deeply skeptical. And then to
Dave Collum:
Well,
Jonathan Kogan:
see.
Dave Collum:
no, no, no, but let me ask you this. Do you believe that they would leave the election alone? Is there any
Jonathan Kogan:
No,
Dave Collum:
chance of that?
Jonathan Kogan:
but I can't say that it was, I also can't say with full confidence that it was rigged because I need that proof even if you can't prove it that
Dave Collum:
You're
Jonathan Kogan:
that
Dave Collum:
never
Jonathan Kogan:
sucks.
Dave Collum:
gonna get it.
Jonathan Kogan:
Right, but so this is the part that makes it really sketchy, which is.
Dave Collum:
No, but you're never going to get something that exonerates it
Jonathan Kogan:
Sure,
Dave Collum:
either.
Jonathan Kogan:
sure, but here's the thing that makes me lean towards that it was, is that 100% of the other things they've said was true was a lie. 100% of it and they're pretty outlandish
Dave Collum:
Right?
Jonathan Kogan:
things. Okay.
Dave Collum:
Right?
Jonathan Kogan:
Not only that, the policies and things that have happened to this country in the last, since Biden took office, two or three years, have, it seems like everything that's happening, and this is just unbiased. I have no ties to the party. I hate both parties. It is, it seems like the decisions are being made to hurt and bring down the United States of America, whether it
Dave Collum:
Every
Jonathan Kogan:
is
Dave Collum:
step of the way.
Jonathan Kogan:
millions
Dave Collum:
Every
Jonathan Kogan:
of people.
Dave Collum:
step of the
Jonathan Kogan:
It's
Dave Collum:
way.
Jonathan Kogan:
like intentional and then and then decisions are made to literally spark outrage amongst the people. Like for example, you have two people in prison in Russia. One's like a Marine has been there forever falsely and then a gay lesbian, you know, LGBTQ plus person, they bring her back, but not it. It's like, I feel and they're tying everything to gender and everything to race. It's just like, let's just go off merit, you know, like.
Dave Collum:
Well, there's a funny gender story there. there is a debate about whether Grindr is a
Jonathan Kogan:
Uh,
Dave Collum:
transgender.
Jonathan Kogan:
I've seen that. It's interesting.
Dave Collum:
Now, I dug into it a little.
Jonathan Kogan:
Oh boy.
Dave Collum:
I just said, oh, this is fun. This is too good to pass. And it turns out that debate was going on back in 2015, 13, which is a rookie. And Al magazine wrote an article about her about that. And at the... They waxed philosophically about the meaning of gender and stuff like that, but they got to the end, they go, they didn't actually tell me whether she was dressed gender. It was a very funny article. And then what triggered it was something that could very easily be a deep fake of her shooting baskets without a shirt on
Jonathan Kogan:
by the pool.
Dave Collum:
by the pool.
Jonathan Kogan:
That just happened. I know I saw that. I know,
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
it was
Dave Collum:
know,
Jonathan Kogan:
weird.
Dave Collum:
I know, I know. So then, but it would easily be dismissed, easily, because someone's seen her naked, right? Someone's seen her naked, unless she's been surgically dealt with. Well, but you know, the wives are not going to spill their guts. But it's a fascinating story that you don't trust anything.
Jonathan Kogan:
Well,
Dave Collum:
You don't
Jonathan Kogan:
what do
Dave Collum:
trust
Jonathan Kogan:
you think
Dave Collum:
anything.
Jonathan Kogan:
about what do you think about Michelle Obama then?
Dave Collum:
I don't buy that one, it turns out.
Jonathan Kogan:
Okay.
Dave Collum:
Her kids look like her.
Jonathan Kogan:
interesting
Dave Collum:
I
Jonathan Kogan:
one.
Dave Collum:
think that's it. I think the memers are just having a party with that one. That one I don't believe.
Jonathan Kogan:
Have you seen a pregnant picture
Dave Collum:
But
Jonathan Kogan:
of
Dave Collum:
they're...
Jonathan Kogan:
her?
Dave Collum:
No. nor have I seen a video of the plane hitting the Pentagon. So.
Jonathan Kogan:
Building seven.
Dave Collum:
That, by the way, is, I think, the best evidence. I think the Pentagon's actually better than Bill Dixson.
Jonathan Kogan:
It seems like everything that is violent against the people has been manufactured with an intent like by the government or some other, like that, that we would never fight amongst each other. It seems like, like even if you go to Las Vegas, like the Las Vegas shooter, we know very little about that incident.
Dave Collum:
I know a lot about that. I wrote
Jonathan Kogan:
Is that
Dave Collum:
about
Jonathan Kogan:
suspicious?
Dave Collum:
that. I did a podcast with
Jonathan Kogan:
With
Dave Collum:
it.
Jonathan Kogan:
John.
Dave Collum:
It falls apart falls apart from head to toe. John and I were on different planes. John and I were not connecting well. Now I think John has an interesting theory that the Saudis were trying to assassinate MBS and they fucked up. But that was I have no trouble imagining that story. The problem is there was also crazy bat shit chaos going on a ground level that I don't think John's theory holds hold explained. But when I saw the Vegas shooting, something piqued my interest very quickly. I said, wait a minute, wait a minute. Why did that guy just lie? You know, soon someone lies. So when I dug into the climate struggle, let me back out a little bit. I'm pretty good with science. My brother was saying, how do you know climate change is real? I said, Ned, every fucking person I know, every single one believes in this story. I know a lot of smart people. They all believe in climate change. I don't. I am unqualified. I said to the secretary of energy that I was agnostic. And he flinched. I said, I haven't done 10,000 hours. How would I be qualified to have an opinion? No. Then some doctor starts leaning on me. So I said, OK, dipstick. I didn't call him that. I don't insult people to their faces. no credible person believes your story that it's not true. He said, oh yeah, they do. I said, send me names. Now I figure he's gonna send me names of guys who I've never heard of from dipstick state college. And I go, you know, it's not that you can't be smart there, but I gotta see better than that. And he sends me names of elite scientists. I go, okay, but these guys are gonna write a paper about how the model didn't work, and therefore climate change is not true, and that's not true. That's not how it works. And he sends me about 20 names and I start Googling and here's 20 famous guys saying the whole story is bullshit. Nobel Prize winning physicists saying, the whole story is bullshit. The former principal investigator of NASA's temperature monitoring program saying the whole story is bullshit. The former founder of Greenpeace, the whole story is bullshit. The former
Jonathan Kogan:
of the Weather
Dave Collum:
head of
Jonathan Kogan:
Channel.
Dave Collum:
the National Academy of Sciences saying the whole story is bullshit. The Princeton physicist who was presidential advisor for several presidents said the whole story is bullshit. Freeman fucking Dyson said the whole story is bullshit. The chair of physics department of Prince of... of a, of a, Yishiva University, was it Yishiva? Um, not Yishiva. Uh, in Israel, graduated from college at 18, solar physicists said every last bit of climate change is attributable to the sun. He wrote an op-ed, stayed up at Forbes for four hours. They took it down. So here's the deal. The fact that there's no credible people don't believe it. That's the first big lie. I can guarantee you can find these people. The American Physics Society put together an elite committee included the former Caltech Provost, computational modeler, former Obama science advisor. He chaired it. And then looked at the story. They came out of it and said, the science is crap. He wrote a book, Steve Coon. Now Steve straddles the line. He says, ah, I'm sure there's some. You know, blah, blah, blah. That's how you keep from getting in a shitstorm. But then when he says, when it comes down to, can you predict the temperature, which, by the way, seems to be a minimum requirement if you're going to make a climate change story, he said, no, it's not possible. What I'll tell you is anyone who knows any physics will say it's chaotic. You can't predict the temperature. have solved the two body problem where two things are related to each other. They haven't solved the three body problem. That gives you an idea how tough they can be. Physicist nonlinear equations are killers. Former vice president of one of the 10 biggest companies in the country who's got PhD in physical science, I'm not gonna tell you anymore because he's out there on Twitter and I know who he is. So when I get in this debate, I just tell people, it's an unimaginably large number of nonlinear equations that are not solvable. You say, oh yeah, but we have to. And I go, well, you can't. So you can't say the temperature is gonna do this. So you can't justify $150 trillion. And then you start digging into the story and you start finding the bullshit, the little bullshit. Like the polar bears. Remember that polar bear starving picture?
Jonathan Kogan:
there's so many of these
Dave Collum:
That, yeah, and he said they're starving on an ice floe. And I go, what do polar bears eat? And I go, anything they want.
Jonathan Kogan:
the ice gonna
Dave Collum:
And
Jonathan Kogan:
melt,
Dave Collum:
then I'm
Jonathan Kogan:
yeah.
Dave Collum:
in the middle of a QTR podcast, and it clicked, I go, what if he's 40 fucking years old? What if he's got stomach cancer? We don't know why he's dying. And then you find out that one of the world's experts on Arctic mammals says the polar bear population has tripled since the 70s.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah,
Dave Collum:
Go,
Jonathan Kogan:
yeah.
Dave Collum:
okay, I guess the polar bear story is sketchy. And then you find out that the world was warm in the Middle Ages.
Jonathan Kogan:
Uh huh.
Dave Collum:
Go,
Jonathan Kogan:
I know
Dave Collum:
okay,
Jonathan Kogan:
that-
Dave Collum:
so apparently that part of the story is out. And then you say, well, but look, you've seen the glacier pictures. 1920? 1920? 1920, right? Look at that, that glacier's ripping backwards.
Jonathan Kogan:
Same with the sea level rising.
Dave Collum:
That's sketchy, actually. But then, then you find out that what's what was underneath the glacier? So the seeds, what's under there? And you find out that they're 1200 year old trees. They grew there 1200 years ago. Those glaciers are not some measure, something that's been there for eons and eons. And they find that people were growing hops in Northern England. places you cannot now grow
Jonathan Kogan:
Right.
Dave Collum:
hops.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yep.
Dave Collum:
And then it just goes, and then you see plots where. where the scientists just do shit. You go, you've got to know you're lying on that one. I got in a fight with one of them. She blocked me on Twitter. And I found the fraud in the paper. I said, this paper looks like fraud to me. She said, how can you say that? I said, look at figure 26, that's crap. She said, well, you gotta read the original paper. I went and read it. I said, now I know why it's crap. Here's the problem. And then she blocked me. And so
Jonathan Kogan:
course.
Dave Collum:
that's what the climate. That if you go against. Here's what I promise you, I guarantee you. If you go to a funding agency and you say, my data, preliminary data, which you have to have to get funded, you don't just promise to say something with nothing. You gotta say, here's some preliminary data. This is why we know the project will work. We're gonna now do this. That's how all science is funded. You come up with preliminary data, it looks like it's gonna show there's no climate change. You will never, ever be funded.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yep,
Dave Collum:
I've
Jonathan Kogan:
that's what
Dave Collum:
asked
Jonathan Kogan:
I work.
Dave Collum:
believers in climate change, I've asked devout believers in climate change, is that true? And they say yes. I said therefore the entire climate science world are believers only. Or lying. You know the 97% statistic, 97% of climate changers think it's going to be a catastrophe. They took 1,150 papers, they read only the abstracts. They threw out all the papers that said nothing and that came down to 79 papers. So someone put some fucking buzz shit in the abstract in 77 of the 79 papers. That's where that stack comes from. The entire climate change community uses that set the entire, they have to know their life, they have to know their life. If you're listening to me, look into my eyes, you're a bunch of fucking liars. When you cite that you're a liar. I'm calling you a liar. So one day. Stanford guy wants me to do a poll and he's serious. He's a media guy. He's a media expert. He wants
Jonathan Kogan:
Ha
Dave Collum:
me to
Jonathan Kogan:
ha.
Dave Collum:
do a poll about how chemistry functions, stuff like that. So he said you can call me on my cell phone if you want. So I'm going, oh the guy's serious. So I went and watched a video on YouTube of him talking about media's relationship to scientific education. It was climate change. It was about six, seven years ago. And I can see he believes the story. But he's doing a good job of balancing and says, when the right wing comes in, this is what happens, right? And then analyze all of it. And then I said, well, I'm happy to do your poll. What I have to do is fess up, is that I've dug into the climate change story and I gave him about, I don't know, 200 words, which I said, it's bullshit. And he got back to me and said, well, I did too and drew the same conclusion. as a media expert, not Mark Crispin Miller, who's at NYU, who calls him bullshit, who's a media expert. So then he got this, the Stanford guy got this idea that if he could debunk, which is a word I don't like actually, the 97%
Jonathan Kogan:
I don't either.
Dave Collum:
stat, that would blow the story on the water. And I said, oh, you are so not going to do it for that. They have blown so much shit out of the water. The hockey stick that got Al Gore the Nobel Prize. Complete fraud. Complete fraud. By the way, you know, one of the great plots is where the CO2 and the temperature track over 600,000 years. There it is. More CO2, higher temperature. Well, it turns out they're offset. Statistically significantly offset by about 800 years. The temperature rises, then the CO2 appears. And that's fresh from the cap. Oceans warm. degas CO2, it's less soluble, the atmosphere picks up CO2.
Jonathan Kogan:
So this is one of the parts, so this is the topic that I think is so interesting that is that they say in the sovereign individual and I go back and references all time, which is the climate is if you knew, if you had information that no one else had, that you knew that you know you can grow crops and different certain crops in different areas and that there's these cycles, okay. It's not linear. There's cycles that the earth goes through and you know those dates when everything's going to change. and transition and food won't be able to grown and that's where humans usually migrate and everything changes, right? And it's not how it used to be for the 500 years. It's just like a solar minimum. Something changes. If you had that information, right? You could use that to control the people. And so in the sovereign individual, it references how people would migrate from huge areas of land because like the climate would change and they're suggesting something on the lines where There might be this information that whoever runs shit in this world has it and that they can control basically where people are going to go or go to where the puck is going and they know everything's going to change. For example, there's this rain catcher for floods that was built somewhere in Saudi Arabia in the desert or somewhere where rain never occurred, but now it's there and all of a sudden there's torrential downpour. You have floods going on in California. climate just changes. So if you knew that the climate was changing in some massive way, you could use that to say, okay, we know there's going to be like
Dave Collum:
you
Jonathan Kogan:
more crazy events now, but it's normal. It happened, you know, 8,000 years ago, but now it's coming up on that cycle. Let's tell people it's climate change and they're going to see it and they're going to be like, yeah, they're right.
Dave Collum:
That's
Jonathan Kogan:
And let's
Dave Collum:
right. That's like the guy who knows the comet's coming. He says,
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah,
Dave Collum:
I will
Jonathan Kogan:
yeah.
Dave Collum:
summon the celestial bodies. Right. That's why, by the way, drugs were important to religion because the guy said, we want to convert you, slip them some mescaline. And he's going, holy fuck, their God's stronger than my fucking God.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, and
Dave Collum:
Right.
Jonathan Kogan:
I think that could be true.
Dave Collum:
Now, now recall the true believer.
Jonathan Kogan:
Yep. Oh, you got to refresh your page. We might have to do it. It says stop recording. We might have to do another one. Thanks. It just says click refresh the page. He's refreshing the page because we've been on for such a long time. We'll see what happens.
Dave Collum:
Do you know if it missed anything before that or is that the slice point?
Jonathan Kogan:
Um,
Dave Collum:
We'll
Jonathan Kogan:
I
Dave Collum:
just
Jonathan Kogan:
think
Dave Collum:
wing
Jonathan Kogan:
that,
Dave Collum:
it. We'll
Jonathan Kogan:
I think
Dave Collum:
just
Jonathan Kogan:
that
Dave Collum:
wing
Jonathan Kogan:
was the
Dave Collum:
it.
Jonathan Kogan:
slice point, but I think we're at max. I think that's the total data on the, on your thing.
Dave Collum:
of my thing?
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah, I think so. This is what happened last time right around this time. I know it.
Dave Collum:
We ran out of data.
Jonathan Kogan:
So I think.
Dave Collum:
What is it in some buffer somewhere?
Jonathan Kogan:
Like if I stop it, should I stop it?
Dave Collum:
Well, if you stop and you can download it,
Jonathan Kogan:
Yeah,
Dave Collum:
how
Jonathan Kogan:
I could...
Dave Collum:
long does that take?
Jonathan Kogan:
Uh, it's quit here. Wait, let me click stop
